***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 6.2 13.3 122.7 70.6 62.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.6 9.1 12.2 116.5 68.9 58.6 2.7 5.1 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 12.5 13.1 14.4 129.2 72.4 63.3 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 13.3 16.7 18.0 157.5 79.3 70.1 4.0 7.1 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 9.6 11.8 17.2 145.4 76.8 67.9 2.9 5.4 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 10.6 13.0 18.9 154.2 78.8 72.2 2.8 5.2 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.0 7.9 11.6 112.0 67.4 57.0 2.3 4.4 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 14.6 17.2 18.1 143.4 76.4 69.3 4.7 8.2 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 8.8 10.1 16.8 135.4 74.2 65.7 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 10.2 11.8 18.0 138.7 75.1 67.5 3.7 6.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 8.9 11.6 16.6 149.9 77.9 69.5 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 11.4 14.1 16.7 150.6 78.2 70.4 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 10.1 12.5 18.1 154.2 79.0 72.2 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 18.1 19.2 16.6 125.0 71.1 62.8 5.8 10.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 14.1 20.0 19.1 166.4 80.8 71.0 2.5 5.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 7.7 10.3 17.0 155.1 79.2 71.2 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.9 7.7 11.0 108.7 66.4 56.2 2.0 4.2 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 9.9 11.0 18.7 130.5 72.8 65.1 3.9 6.3 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.4 10.6 12.9 121.2 70.2 60.3 2.9 5.6 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 10.9 11.8 21.5 127.2 71.8 65.7 4.1 6.8 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 10.6 11.5 15.4 133.1 73.5 65.0 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.6 11.6 107.7 65.9 56.9 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 10.4 10.7 14.0 125.4 71.3 61.7 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 14.8 16.1 16.8 128.7 72.3 63.8 4.9 8.6 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 11.5 11.8 15.7 129.2 72.4 64.5 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 8.8 10.9 18.2 156.3 79.4 72.4 1.9 3.9 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 11.3 10.6 14.0 119.8 69.7 61.6 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 9.0 12.9 18.7 166.7 81.1 71.8 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 16.9 18.3 19.4 125.6 71.2 64.2 6.2 10.4 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.5 9.6 12.7 119.7 69.8 59.8 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------