***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 7.1 10.1 104.5 65.3 53.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.2 6.0 9.2 101.1 64.6 52.0 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.7 10.1 9.8 101.2 64.3 53.4 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.8 12.9 10.8 103.7 65.1 53.8 4.8 8.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.6 12.9 10.9 102.6 65.1 55.2 4.4 8.1 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.8 11.5 10.7 98.6 63.6 55.3 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.0 6.5 9.4 103.3 65.2 51.5 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.0 17.6 11.5 100.0 63.6 55.3 7.0 12.1 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.9 9.3 11.1 101.2 64.5 55.1 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 9.7 11.4 11.7 100.3 63.7 55.2 3.9 7.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.3 10.0 98.0 63.4 54.8 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 7.6 9.0 9.9 96.3 62.7 54.6 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.3 11.4 10.5 97.5 63.4 55.8 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.8 11.9 12.2 102.1 64.1 54.9 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.0 9.3 9.6 94.6 62.8 51.1 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.6 10.2 9.9 98.2 63.5 54.9 3.5 6.7 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.0 5.6 8.8 99.0 64.0 50.3 1.8 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.4 11.0 13.3 102.1 64.0 55.3 4.5 7.6 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.8 6.8 9.2 100.1 64.3 52.7 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.7 10.7 15.8 106.1 65.5 55.8 4.2 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.8 10.6 103.6 65.2 54.5 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.9 9.1 96.9 63.6 52.3 2.1 3.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.6 9.8 100.0 64.0 53.5 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.1 11.9 11.8 101.3 64.0 54.7 4.5 7.9 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.5 11.6 109.1 66.8 54.6 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 9.0 11.1 10.9 100.8 64.5 56.0 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.8 8.4 11.1 107.5 66.2 53.9 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.0 9.5 9.9 97.5 63.3 52.5 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.1 16.6 14.6 104.0 64.7 55.7 7.1 11.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.5 9.4 101.4 64.6 52.4 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------