***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 6.3 7.4 93.1 60.4 44.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.4 7.6 8.2 111.5 68.1 50.2 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.7 7.7 94.4 60.6 45.6 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.6 8.6 90.9 60.6 47.2 3.9 7.0 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.3 8.7 8.0 82.7 56.0 44.5 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.4 6.6 8.4 77.0 54.2 43.7 3.4 5.8 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.2 7.1 8.1 111.4 68.0 50.4 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.1 9.1 84.4 56.7 46.4 5.1 9.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.3 7.8 78.7 53.0 42.6 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.3 8.6 79.5 53.5 43.7 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.4 7.6 7.7 82.9 56.4 45.4 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.1 7.9 83.6 56.5 45.5 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.1 8.2 80.6 55.2 44.7 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.4 9.4 90.2 58.5 44.6 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.0 8.8 9.0 96.4 64.0 48.0 2.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.3 6.7 7.8 83.3 56.7 45.7 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.7 9.2 8.4 116.3 69.8 51.3 2.6 4.9 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.0 9.8 80.8 53.9 44.4 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.8 8.0 8.0 106.2 66.2 48.9 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.0 12.8 90.3 59.3 49.1 2.8 5.3 8.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.1 7.6 85.5 56.2 43.3 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.8 8.4 8.8 118.2 69.9 50.2 2.7 4.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.8 7.9 97.6 62.7 46.8 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.7 8.8 84.9 55.8 44.0 3.6 6.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.4 7.4 8.8 92.5 60.0 46.6 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.7 8.3 82.4 57.5 47.2 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.7 8.0 8.3 93.2 60.4 46.2 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.6 8.4 89.6 60.7 47.2 2.3 4.5 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.5 11.1 85.2 56.6 46.6 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.5 7.9 105.8 65.9 48.9 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------