***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 37.1 46.5 126.6 72.9 65.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 33.1 36.7 45.3 131.4 74.7 66.9 15.2 22.2 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 43.6 45.8 47.0 124.3 71.9 64.9 19.5 29.0 40.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 53.8 57.4 54.1 129.9 73.8 68.0 22.9 34.5 48.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 48.0 48.4 50.6 119.8 69.6 63.6 23.7 33.6 45.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 30.7 39.0 49.7 116.0 67.6 62.8 18.4 27.2 37.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 30.6 34.0 45.0 132.1 74.9 66.8 14.9 21.2 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 52.0 64.5 53.1 115.6 67.3 63.4 32.4 46.6 63.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 36.7 35.2 49.8 114.7 66.8 61.0 18.1 25.8 34.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 35.3 42.2 52.1 112.2 65.4 60.7 21.6 31.2 42.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 41.5 41.4 47.4 117.9 68.5 63.4 19.0 28.3 39.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 28.2 36.9 47.0 115.8 67.4 63.4 16.1 24.9 35.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 32.2 41.1 48.5 115.1 67.1 62.8 19.3 28.7 40.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 54.9 53.1 53.4 114.4 66.7 61.0 28.4 39.6 52.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 48.6 54.3 55.8 136.6 75.8 70.2 16.8 27.9 42.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 38.4 38.8 47.2 119.2 69.3 64.3 16.6 25.4 36.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 31.4 35.2 44.3 132.3 75.0 66.7 15.3 21.9 29.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 32.5 37.7 56.6 110.1 64.1 59.7 18.7 28.0 39.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 37.2 40.5 45.6 128.7 73.6 66.4 18.3 25.9 34.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 42.1 43.0 72.4 120.3 69.4 65.4 20.1 29.2 40.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 39.9 40.0 48.6 120.8 70.1 63.3 21.1 28.8 37.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 35.0 39.1 46.2 130.0 74.2 66.4 16.6 24.1 33.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 35.9 37.8 46.9 123.3 71.2 64.9 16.4 24.4 33.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 48.9 46.8 51.9 113.7 66.3 60.5 25.8 35.5 46.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 43.5 46.2 52.9 125.9 72.6 66.1 22.2 30.9 41.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 33.9 34.9 50.4 118.7 69.1 65.1 15.1 22.9 32.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 39.0 41.6 49.9 125.8 72.6 65.8 18.7 26.8 36.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 40.0 42.8 52.7 129.5 73.5 67.8 14.3 23.7 35.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 50.1 59.6 61.8 111.6 65.0 60.8 29.7 43.8 60.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 32.8 35.9 45.5 129.6 74.0 66.5 15.1 22.1 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------