***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 -1.3 -1.7 -2.0 0.8 61.2 60.5 -3.8 -2.6 -1.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -2.8 -2.3 -2.0 0.8 61.6 60.9 -4.6 -3.2 -2.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 0.3 0.0 -1.8 0.9 63.5 62.7 -2.0 -0.9 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 -4.7 -4.6 -4.1 1.5 72.1 69.3 -7.6 -6.3 -5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 -1.9 -2.1 -3.7 1.2 67.0 65.8 -4.4 -3.2 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 -2.8 -2.5 -5.3 1.8 75.3 71.7 -5.3 -4.2 -3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 -2.7 -2.3 -2.0 0.7 60.2 59.3 -4.5 -3.1 -1.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 -6.7 -7.1 -5.8 0.9 62.2 61.3 -9.0 -7.9 -6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 -1.0 -1.3 -3.4 1.1 66.4 65.4 -3.5 -2.4 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 -2.5 -2.3 -5.3 0.7 60.0 59.7 -4.0 -2.9 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 -1.8 -2.0 -4.2 1.3 67.7 66.4 -4.4 -3.2 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 -2.6 -2.8 -4.8 1.3 67.6 66.0 -5.0 -3.9 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 -2.2 -2.5 -5.1 1.1 65.3 64.0 -4.6 -3.5 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 -1.7 -1.2 -3.7 1.0 64.5 63.3 -3.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 -1.4 -1.3 -2.8 1.5 72.3 69.8 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 -1.1 -1.1 -4.6 1.5 70.8 68.8 -3.6 -2.5 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 -2.9 -2.4 -1.9 0.8 62.0 60.8 -4.5 -3.3 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -4.5 -4.6 -6.2 0.3 53.9 54.4 -5.9 -4.9 -3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 -2.6 -2.1 -2.0 0.8 62.7 62.0 -4.3 -3.0 -1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -7.6 -8.0 -7.3 0.1 51.7 51.9 -9.4 -8.1 -6.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 -1.4 -1.8 -2.5 0.9 63.5 62.9 -3.8 -2.7 -1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 -2.9 -2.4 -2.0 0.8 61.9 61.2 -4.5 -3.3 -2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 -2.7 -2.0 -2.1 0.9 64.4 63.6 -4.1 -3.0 -1.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -2.7 -2.5 -4.2 0.6 59.3 59.2 -4.1 -3.1 -2.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 -1.8 -2.0 -2.9 0.9 63.1 62.0 -4.0 -2.9 -1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 -2.2 -2.5 -5.2 1.0 64.6 63.2 -4.4 -3.4 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -2.2 -2.5 0.6 58.7 58.4 -4.1 -2.8 -1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 -2.6 -2.5 -3.9 1.6 72.3 69.6 -5.2 -4.0 -3.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -4.7 -5.5 -7.2 -0.3 45.3 47.0 -6.3 -5.2 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -1.9 -1.9 0.8 61.9 61.2 -4.2 -2.9 -1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------