***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 5.8 6.1 5.4 2.2 71.4 69.4 1.9 3.7 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 5.2 5.6 5.6 2.3 72.3 70.2 1.5 3.2 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 6.5 6.7 5.7 2.1 69.6 67.6 2.4 4.4 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.2 72.0 68.8 -3.0 -0.7 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.5 3.8 1.9 68.8 66.3 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 5.7 5.7 2.6 1.8 68.0 64.6 2.1 3.9 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 4.8 5.2 5.4 2.3 72.2 70.1 1.1 2.8 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -0.7 0.3 2.9 1.5 64.9 62.3 -3.0 -1.3 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.2 4.7 1.9 68.8 66.4 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 4.9 5.8 3.4 1.4 63.7 61.9 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 6.4 6.5 4.1 1.8 68.1 65.6 2.7 4.5 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.7 3.6 1.8 68.1 65.1 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 6.4 6.4 3.6 1.7 67.4 64.5 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 7.3 7.1 5.1 1.9 67.5 65.4 2.7 4.9 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 6.3 6.7 4.5 2.7 75.5 72.2 1.2 3.3 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 7.2 7.3 3.6 2.0 69.4 66.5 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 4.7 5.0 5.4 2.3 72.4 70.2 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.5 4.1 3.1 1.3 62.9 61.1 1.6 3.0 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 5.7 6.0 5.7 2.3 71.5 69.5 1.6 3.5 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.6 3.4 1.5 1.2 63.1 60.6 -0.2 1.8 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 6.6 6.7 5.3 1.9 68.5 66.3 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 5.6 5.9 5.6 2.2 71.5 69.4 1.7 3.5 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 5.2 5.5 5.8 2.1 70.0 68.0 1.6 3.4 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 6.8 6.7 4.8 1.7 65.9 63.8 2.7 4.8 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 5.2 5.2 4.0 1.9 69.6 67.4 1.7 3.3 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 5.9 6.0 2.9 1.6 68.1 64.5 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 6.1 6.2 4.8 1.9 69.8 67.8 2.1 4.0 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 7.0 7.5 3.5 2.4 72.7 69.4 1.8 4.2 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.7 3.4 2.4 1.2 61.8 60.1 -0.1 2.0 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 5.1 5.4 5.6 2.3 72.0 70.0 1.3 3.1 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------