***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.9 5.5 0.6 55.8 55.2 3.4 6.0 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.8 5.5 0.7 56.7 56.2 3.6 6.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.8 5.8 0.6 55.0 54.5 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -1.7 1.8 3.0 0.9 58.1 55.7 -1.3 0.8 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.0 7.4 4.0 0.6 55.9 54.4 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.5 6.4 3.0 0.6 55.7 54.1 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.3 5.5 0.7 56.6 56.0 3.1 5.4 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -0.5 3.3 0.4 53.8 52.9 -2.5 -0.9 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.8 8.0 4.7 0.5 54.5 53.5 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.5 3.9 0.4 53.5 52.9 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.7 4.0 0.6 55.5 54.1 4.7 7.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.5 54.7 53.6 4.9 6.9 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.5 3.4 0.6 56.1 54.6 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.3 5.0 0.4 53.4 52.8 5.4 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.3 3.8 1.0 59.4 56.4 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.6 7.9 3.7 0.7 56.4 54.8 5.0 7.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.4 5.6 0.7 56.9 56.2 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.6 3.9 0.3 52.8 52.6 4.3 6.3 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.0 5.7 0.7 55.9 55.6 3.6 6.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.4 1.9 0.3 53.2 52.6 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.6 5.2 0.5 54.4 53.5 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.2 5.6 0.7 56.2 55.7 4.0 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.2 5.9 0.5 54.6 54.4 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.1 4.9 0.4 53.4 52.9 5.3 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.4 4.0 0.7 56.4 55.0 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.2 7.0 3.3 0.6 56.3 54.5 4.4 6.3 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.0 5.0 0.6 56.0 55.1 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.3 8.3 3.3 0.9 58.2 55.7 4.8 7.2 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.8 3.2 0.2 52.2 52.3 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.6 5.5 0.7 56.4 56.0 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------