***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 1.0 1.0 2.2 23.7 20.8 15.4 1.9 3.7 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 1.0 0.9 1.6 18.1 18.4 13.1 1.9 3.9 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 1.1 0.9 2.1 22.2 19.6 14.3 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 1.5 0.7 1.9 14.7 13.0 11.3 3.0 5.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 1.1 0.6 2.3 19.1 15.1 13.1 2.2 4.7 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 0.9 0.3 1.6 13.6 8.4 8.8 1.7 3.3 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 0.9 0.6 1.5 16.1 16.9 12.3 1.6 3.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 2.3 1.4 2.6 19.3 14.5 12.3 4.2 8.1 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 1.2 0.9 2.3 20.5 16.6 13.5 2.1 3.8 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 1.3 0.9 2.8 21.6 16.1 13.5 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 1.2 0.7 2.3 19.3 14.7 12.6 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 0.9 0.5 2.1 17.1 13.0 11.4 1.7 3.4 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 1.2 0.6 2.3 18.2 11.8 11.3 2.2 4.0 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 1.7 1.5 2.9 23.5 18.5 13.9 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 1.1 0.8 1.5 13.2 15.7 12.2 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 0.9 0.4 2.0 16.3 11.5 10.7 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 90 10 0 100 0.9 0.7 1.3 14.8 15.7 11.3 1.8 3.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 1.7 1.2 3.1 23.1 16.5 13.8 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 1.0 0.8 1.8 19.7 19.3 13.7 1.9 4.2 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 1.7 1.1 3.3 20.8 15.7 13.0 3.0 5.4 8.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 0.9 0.8 2.2 20.9 18.0 14.0 2.0 4.0 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 1.2 0.9 1.7 17.8 18.0 12.7 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 0.9 0.6 2.1 21.2 19.2 13.9 1.7 3.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 1.3 1.0 2.7 23.2 17.8 14.0 2.4 4.6 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 0.8 0.4 2.2 20.4 17.3 14.3 1.5 3.7 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 0.9 0.4 1.8 15.3 10.2 9.8 1.7 2.9 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 0.9 0.7 2.1 21.2 18.4 14.3 1.7 3.6 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 1.1 0.6 1.7 14.0 13.1 11.2 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 91 9 0 100 2.1 1.5 3.2 22.8 16.3 13.7 4.1 7.6 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 0.9 0.7 1.8 19.7 19.5 14.0 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------