***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.5 10.2 78.8 54.2 44.2 2.6 4.9 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.0 9.1 80.2 55.1 44.0 2.7 5.1 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.5 10.3 80.4 54.6 45.8 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.9 10.5 13.9 100.7 63.5 51.1 4.0 7.1 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 6.7 8.3 14.6 107.1 64.9 53.1 2.9 5.4 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.1 7.2 12.9 97.6 60.1 48.9 2.8 5.2 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.5 8.9 80.6 56.0 44.4 2.3 4.4 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.5 12.9 16.0 111.8 66.1 53.6 4.7 8.2 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.0 7.2 14.3 103.8 63.3 52.7 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 7.4 9.5 15.9 113.3 66.7 55.0 3.7 6.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.9 7.6 14.9 109.1 65.4 53.1 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.7 8.9 14.2 106.5 64.3 52.3 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.7 7.5 14.4 103.4 62.9 51.8 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.5 13.3 87.2 56.5 49.2 5.8 10.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.5 11.5 86.3 58.8 45.5 2.5 5.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.0 6.1 14.2 106.9 64.6 52.6 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.5 8.9 83.1 56.7 44.7 2.0 4.2 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.6 9.2 16.1 110.4 65.5 54.7 3.9 6.3 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.4 6.4 9.3 79.3 54.3 44.0 2.9 5.6 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.3 9.6 19.2 108.0 63.7 52.1 4.1 6.8 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.3 12.5 92.0 58.9 49.6 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.2 9.3 82.3 56.4 44.1 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.2 9.8 78.4 53.1 44.7 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.7 11.1 13.5 94.1 59.1 50.8 4.9 8.6 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.4 12.5 85.2 56.7 46.8 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.0 5.0 12.8 91.6 56.9 47.2 1.9 3.9 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.5 11.1 80.9 55.1 44.9 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.7 13.0 100.1 63.4 49.7 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.8 15.4 16.9 108.9 64.9 54.1 6.2 10.4 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.4 9.2 78.4 54.3 43.6 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------