***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.3 4.3 6.8 69.7 49.1 38.9 2.2 4.4 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.8 3.6 5.9 68.6 49.3 36.7 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.3 6.0 6.8 69.0 48.9 38.3 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.6 10.1 8.9 82.8 56.4 41.1 4.8 8.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.1 9.7 9.1 83.5 56.1 42.6 4.4 8.1 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.6 10.5 9.6 92.8 60.2 45.7 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.8 3.7 5.8 68.3 48.9 37.1 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.3 15.4 10.5 89.4 58.5 43.5 7.0 12.1 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.8 6.5 9.1 79.4 53.8 42.4 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.1 8.9 10.0 83.7 55.6 43.2 3.9 7.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.1 9.6 90.4 59.0 43.6 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.4 8.4 9.9 94.1 60.7 44.5 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.6 10.3 95.8 61.2 46.9 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.0 7.0 8.7 68.5 48.1 38.9 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.5 7.8 8.8 82.3 58.2 38.7 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.6 9.8 95.0 61.1 45.3 3.5 6.7 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.7 3.4 5.4 64.6 48.1 35.7 1.8 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.5 8.3 9.8 78.6 52.9 42.5 4.5 7.6 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.2 4.3 6.2 69.0 49.4 37.0 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.0 8.4 12.6 84.1 55.9 42.9 4.2 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.0 6.3 7.9 74.0 51.4 40.8 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 1.8 3.6 5.9 65.6 48.4 35.1 2.1 3.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.0 6.7 69.1 49.2 38.1 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.6 7.9 8.5 72.0 50.0 40.4 4.5 7.9 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.3 6.8 8.1 73.8 51.3 40.8 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.1 10.2 10.1 94.7 61.3 46.0 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.8 5.0 7.4 71.3 49.9 39.8 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.0 8.2 9.0 87.2 59.0 41.1 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.9 12.4 10.5 79.2 53.0 42.4 7.1 11.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.1 4.1 6.2 69.2 49.6 37.3 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------