***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 1.9 5.5 9.9 95.1 61.4 46.6 2.0 3.8 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.3 6.3 9.2 97.1 62.2 44.6 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.3 7.1 10.4 99.1 62.7 47.3 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.7 10.8 12.2 104.0 64.9 48.6 3.9 7.0 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.9 10.5 11.6 98.8 62.4 48.2 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.2 9.1 11.9 108.3 65.9 50.9 3.4 5.8 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.1 5.9 8.8 97.0 62.1 44.2 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 5.0 12.8 12.6 98.4 61.6 48.1 5.1 9.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.4 6.9 11.8 97.1 61.4 47.8 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.4 9.4 12.7 98.4 61.5 48.0 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.0 9.2 11.3 99.8 62.4 47.9 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.7 7.1 11.0 97.5 61.6 47.5 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.0 8.7 11.4 99.1 62.3 47.6 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.6 12.6 92.2 59.4 45.2 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.6 10.0 12.5 110.6 67.7 48.6 2.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.8 8.1 11.3 102.5 63.6 48.0 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.8 8.6 91.6 60.2 43.2 2.6 4.9 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.4 13.3 97.0 60.7 47.7 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.1 9.7 98.0 62.4 45.4 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.2 16.3 94.7 59.8 47.4 2.8 5.3 8.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.1 10.9 95.7 61.1 47.1 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.6 6.4 9.1 90.5 60.0 43.4 2.7 4.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.2 6.7 10.5 97.4 61.8 45.7 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.0 12.3 96.9 61.3 47.0 3.6 6.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.7 11.2 95.6 61.5 47.1 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.4 11.1 94.9 61.2 47.7 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.0 8.1 10.2 94.8 61.0 46.4 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.2 8.1 12.4 110.9 67.2 49.4 2.3 4.5 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.5 14.3 95.7 60.1 47.6 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.2 5.9 9.5 97.9 62.5 45.5 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------