***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 3.4 3.8 0.0 50.3 54.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.5 3.0 -0.6 41.7 48.5 2.7 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.4 4.2 0.1 51.3 55.1 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.4 0.2 2.2 0.3 53.5 55.6 -1.5 -0.1 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.9 3.4 0.7 59.5 59.9 3.7 5.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 6.0 5.7 2.8 1.1 66.0 64.1 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.3 3.0 2.8 -0.6 41.5 48.3 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -0.4 3.0 0.7 59.8 60.0 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 7.4 6.7 4.2 0.7 59.9 60.4 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.0 3.5 0.6 58.8 59.5 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 7.0 6.5 3.7 1.0 63.2 62.4 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 7.0 6.6 3.6 1.0 64.0 62.7 4.1 5.5 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 6.8 6.5 3.4 1.1 66.3 64.3 3.8 5.2 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.0 3.9 0.1 50.9 54.6 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.7 2.3 0.1 51.0 53.6 3.1 4.6 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.0 3.5 1.1 65.4 63.7 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.4 2.8 2.5 -0.9 37.5 44.9 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.4 3.1 0.4 55.2 57.2 2.9 4.0 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.9 3.4 -0.5 43.8 49.9 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.3 1.3 0.2 52.9 55.2 0.8 2.0 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.0 4.3 0.5 56.2 58.0 4.0 5.4 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.6 2.9 -0.8 38.9 45.8 3.1 4.5 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.3 3.9 -0.2 47.2 52.1 3.1 4.5 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.2 4.0 0.3 53.9 56.6 4.4 5.9 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.2 2.6 0.0 50.6 54.2 2.9 4.2 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 6.3 6.0 3.0 1.0 65.6 63.8 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.6 3.1 -0.1 49.1 53.5 3.3 4.7 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.9 2.7 0.5 56.2 57.2 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.7 2.4 0.3 54.8 56.8 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.6 3.4 -0.4 44.8 50.8 2.6 4.0 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------