***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 1.3 2.3 -1.1 37.0 39.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 0.5 0.6 1.1 -2.2 26.2 31.1 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.3 3.2 2.7 -1.0 38.4 40.5 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -2.8 -1.8 0.2 -1.2 36.2 37.7 -2.2 -0.2 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.0 2.2 -0.2 47.7 47.2 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.5 2.0 0.3 53.0 52.1 2.7 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 0.1 0.1 1.1 -2.1 26.3 31.2 0.9 2.7 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.3 -0.9 1.8 -0.6 43.5 44.2 -1.9 -0.3 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.1 3.3 0.0 50.0 49.3 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.6 2.3 -0.5 44.4 44.8 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.1 4.7 2.9 0.2 52.4 51.2 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.0 2.6 0.1 50.8 50.0 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.6 2.9 0.4 54.6 53.3 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 1.8 2.5 2.0 -1.6 32.8 36.1 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.5 2.5 1.1 -1.1 37.7 38.8 1.9 4.0 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.3 2.8 0.5 55.4 53.6 3.1 4.8 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 -2.7 20.9 26.2 1.1 2.7 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 0.8 1.5 1.6 -1.2 37.1 39.1 1.1 2.6 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 0.8 1.1 1.5 -2.0 28.3 32.8 1.6 3.4 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -1.4 33.5 36.5 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.0 3.0 -0.5 44.1 44.6 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 0.3 0.1 0.5 -2.7 21.3 26.6 1.6 3.4 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 0.9 1.5 1.9 -1.7 31.3 35.3 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.6 3.7 2.4 -1.2 37.6 39.6 3.1 5.1 7.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 1.4 2.2 1.3 -1.2 36.0 38.0 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.4 2.3 0.2 52.4 51.8 2.7 4.2 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.9 2.6 1.8 -1.2 35.4 38.0 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.4 1.1 -0.8 41.2 41.8 2.3 4.4 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.1 0.8 1.1 -1.2 36.6 38.9 0.4 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 0.6 1.0 1.7 -1.7 30.5 34.5 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------