***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 2.4 3.6 0.5 55.3 57.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 0.9 2.9 2.6 -0.4 46.2 52.1 1.6 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.8 5.2 4.0 0.6 56.0 57.7 2.4 4.5 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 2.2 0.8 2.2 0.9 59.3 59.1 -2.7 -0.4 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 6.7 5.9 3.2 1.3 62.5 61.1 2.7 4.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 6.1 5.8 2.6 1.7 66.2 63.7 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 0.4 2.5 2.4 -0.4 45.8 52.1 1.1 2.9 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 0.6 0.0 2.9 1.4 63.4 62.0 -3.1 -1.4 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 7.4 6.6 4.0 1.4 62.6 61.4 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 6.6 5.8 3.4 1.4 62.7 61.5 2.6 4.5 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 7.0 6.3 3.4 1.5 64.5 62.4 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 7.0 6.5 3.4 1.6 65.3 63.0 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 6.6 6.4 3.1 1.6 66.0 63.4 2.9 4.7 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.8 3.8 0.7 56.5 57.8 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.9 4.2 1.9 0.6 55.8 57.0 1.3 3.5 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 7.6 7.1 3.2 1.6 65.8 63.2 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 0.6 2.1 2.0 -0.7 42.0 49.5 1.2 2.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 4.6 4.0 3.1 1.2 61.2 60.9 1.6 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 0.8 3.4 3.0 -0.2 48.1 53.0 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.9 1.3 1.0 59.7 60.0 -0.2 1.8 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 6.9 5.9 4.1 1.1 60.6 60.2 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.9 2.4 -0.6 43.2 49.9 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.0 3.6 3.6 0.2 51.5 54.8 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 7.2 6.0 4.0 1.0 59.4 59.7 2.8 4.9 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.4 4.0 2.3 0.5 55.5 57.5 1.7 3.4 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.0 5.6 2.8 1.4 64.9 62.9 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.7 4.6 2.8 0.4 53.9 56.7 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 7.3 6.0 2.6 1.1 61.2 60.1 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 4.0 3.1 2.4 1.1 60.6 60.7 -0.2 1.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 0.6 3.1 3.0 -0.1 49.3 54.0 1.3 3.1 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------