***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 6.3 5.2 0.3 52.9 54.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.2 4.8 0.1 51.3 53.2 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.4 7.8 5.6 0.5 54.3 55.3 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.9 1.8 3.8 0.7 56.2 56.1 -1.1 1.1 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.1 4.7 0.9 58.3 57.8 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.8 7.5 3.7 1.3 62.5 60.1 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.7 4.6 0.0 50.3 52.5 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 0.8 0.1 4.1 1.1 60.8 59.7 -2.3 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.8 5.4 0.9 57.9 57.6 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.7 8.5 4.7 1.0 59.3 58.7 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 9.9 8.7 4.8 1.2 60.7 59.6 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 9.5 8.6 4.7 1.2 62.2 60.5 5.1 7.2 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.0 8.7 4.2 1.3 62.7 60.6 4.9 7.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 10.7 8.9 5.5 0.8 57.3 57.5 5.5 7.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.7 3.7 0.4 53.8 54.4 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.5 9.0 4.4 1.2 61.4 59.9 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.7 4.5 0.0 50.4 52.4 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.4 7.5 4.3 0.9 58.4 58.2 4.6 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.6 5.2 0.3 52.7 54.2 3.7 6.2 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 4.1 4.1 2.3 0.8 57.9 58.0 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.3 8.2 5.5 0.7 56.2 56.4 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.8 6.8 5.0 0.3 52.6 54.1 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.3 5.7 0.5 54.7 55.7 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.2 8.9 5.4 0.8 57.2 57.4 5.6 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.4 3.9 0.4 53.4 54.4 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 8.6 7.9 3.9 1.2 62.6 60.4 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.8 4.4 0.2 52.2 53.6 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.3 4.1 0.8 56.9 56.6 4.9 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 4.4 4.5 3.5 0.9 58.3 58.2 1.7 3.6 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.2 6.2 5.0 0.2 51.8 53.6 3.6 6.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------