***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 60.4 70.0 172.9 91.9 86.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 38.3 58.0 65.6 167.9 90.2 84.0 15.6 23.1 32.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 51.5 73.3 67.3 160.5 88.9 83.5 20.2 30.0 41.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 57.2 72.4 69.0 148.7 83.0 78.2 23.3 34.9 49.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 52.4 63.8 67.6 143.0 82.3 76.9 24.1 34.1 45.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 42.2 49.2 64.0 137.3 78.6 73.7 18.4 27.2 37.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 34.8 50.9 65.1 170.2 90.3 83.9 15.6 22.1 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 71.6 87.1 71.5 140.3 81.0 75.3 33.3 47.5 64.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 40.8 49.0 68.0 141.8 82.2 76.5 18.9 26.6 35.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 49.0 58.4 69.3 135.8 79.7 74.1 22.6 32.7 44.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 45.8 53.4 62.3 137.5 79.7 73.8 19.6 28.9 39.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 41.1 50.2 63.3 139.0 80.1 74.1 15.9 24.9 35.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 46.1 54.4 64.6 139.2 80.0 74.7 19.2 28.6 39.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 63.1 76.1 73.0 143.7 83.3 78.4 30.3 41.6 54.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 51.7 64.3 65.8 151.3 81.3 76.8 16.9 27.9 42.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 40.7 48.6 62.2 139.1 79.7 74.3 16.4 25.1 35.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 36.7 50.9 62.6 163.1 88.1 80.8 16.0 23.0 31.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 45.9 55.0 76.1 136.4 80.2 75.3 19.5 29.0 40.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 42.9 63.2 66.5 165.7 90.2 84.4 18.5 26.7 36.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 47.5 61.4 100.2 152.6 85.2 80.5 20.7 29.9 40.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 45.1 56.7 68.2 152.0 86.1 80.3 21.6 29.5 38.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 41.3 59.5 65.2 161.7 88.6 81.7 17.0 25.0 34.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 42.9 61.3 67.9 159.9 89.2 84.3 17.1 25.3 35.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 54.6 65.3 70.4 141.2 82.3 76.9 27.1 37.1 48.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 50.0 66.3 75.0 159.8 88.2 83.6 22.2 31.2 41.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 38.8 49.6 67.8 148.8 83.2 77.6 14.9 23.0 32.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 46.2 66.6 73.9 168.7 90.6 86.0 19.0 27.5 37.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 41.5 51.4 64.2 144.2 80.2 75.3 14.7 23.9 35.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 73.3 87.8 84.0 140.2 81.7 77.1 31.2 45.5 62.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 38.2 58.2 66.7 169.8 90.9 85.2 15.7 23.1 31.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------