***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 20.2 23.6 271.9 92.1 88.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 10.4 20.9 21.5 276.0 93.0 88.8 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 13.8 25.3 22.5 248.5 90.9 86.6 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 17.1 26.4 21.5 217.1 88.0 83.6 3.9 7.4 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 13.3 21.1 21.3 207.0 87.5 82.2 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 9.0 13.7 18.5 204.2 87.1 80.0 2.0 3.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 8.3 15.5 21.0 277.8 93.0 88.9 1.9 3.5 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 19.7 31.7 22.7 210.7 87.4 80.8 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 9.9 14.6 21.2 204.8 86.7 82.2 2.0 4.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 11.2 16.8 21.0 191.9 85.4 79.4 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 9.4 14.6 19.4 196.4 85.8 78.5 1.8 3.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 8.5 12.9 20.5 207.6 87.4 80.2 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 9.0 14.4 19.8 198.9 87.2 79.3 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 15.1 24.6 24.3 222.2 88.5 83.8 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 11.4 17.6 19.7 218.4 87.4 83.0 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 9.5 15.8 19.5 205.7 87.6 80.3 1.7 3.7 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 8.3 15.8 20.6 277.4 93.0 88.3 1.9 3.5 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 11.9 18.4 24.2 208.5 87.7 82.9 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 13.1 27.8 22.3 269.2 92.6 88.4 2.0 4.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 12.2 23.0 34.8 267.9 92.7 88.4 2.8 5.2 8.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 11.8 18.9 22.4 228.0 89.0 84.9 2.3 4.6 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 12.5 24.3 22.0 271.5 92.8 88.3 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 12.4 24.3 23.4 251.7 91.4 87.1 2.1 4.6 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 12.6 20.6 23.0 214.6 88.1 83.0 2.7 5.3 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 12.2 21.6 24.4 238.9 90.4 86.2 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 6.4 10.6 21.6 223.5 90.3 84.1 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 10.7 19.8 24.2 258.8 91.6 87.5 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 11.3 17.2 19.0 208.5 87.0 81.9 2.4 4.7 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 19.1 32.6 27.6 226.8 90.0 85.4 4.1 8.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 10.9 21.4 21.8 270.9 92.4 88.5 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------