***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 12.3 16.5 136.8 74.6 67.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 9.4 11.3 16.3 145.3 76.8 69.3 2.6 4.8 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 11.4 12.7 15.9 129.9 72.5 64.9 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 8.4 11.3 16.5 110.7 66.9 61.0 4.5 7.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 7.2 9.5 16.1 109.6 66.5 60.9 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 6.3 8.3 15.2 102.1 63.8 58.7 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 8.6 10.5 16.3 143.9 76.3 70.2 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 10.2 13.1 16.7 107.7 65.8 60.7 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.1 8.1 16.3 112.2 67.1 61.0 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 7.5 9.4 16.5 107.6 65.6 60.3 3.9 6.3 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.8 8.5 14.8 104.4 64.6 59.3 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 7.2 8.8 14.5 102.4 63.9 58.7 3.3 6.0 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 7.0 9.2 15.3 106.1 65.3 60.5 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 18.1 18.3 16.9 120.0 69.5 62.6 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 7.2 10.8 15.5 108.7 66.6 59.7 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 6.1 7.8 14.7 102.6 64.0 59.0 2.9 5.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 8.9 10.5 15.8 142.6 76.0 69.1 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 7.9 10.3 18.1 110.2 66.4 61.4 4.1 6.7 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 10.2 12.2 16.3 144.5 76.6 68.2 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 11.8 12.4 24.0 123.4 70.5 65.4 4.1 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 6.6 9.5 16.0 119.6 69.5 61.8 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 10.0 11.9 16.2 145.5 76.8 68.8 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 9.5 10.9 16.0 137.3 74.7 65.5 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 10.2 13.6 16.5 114.2 67.7 61.5 5.0 8.5 13.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 11.3 12.6 18.1 128.0 72.1 65.6 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 5.8 8.2 15.7 112.1 67.4 62.5 2.6 4.8 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 11.3 12.8 17.9 136.9 74.6 67.9 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 5.5 7.3 15.4 104.8 65.2 59.2 2.4 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 13.1 17.8 20.0 113.5 67.5 62.7 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 9.3 11.3 16.4 144.0 76.4 69.0 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------