***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 8.6 16.8 158.8 80.2 70.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.0 7.0 15.4 144.0 76.4 67.2 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 10.5 12.4 16.4 147.8 77.5 67.4 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 13.7 17.7 18.1 159.0 79.7 67.6 4.1 7.4 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 14.5 17.3 17.3 146.4 77.1 65.6 4.0 7.5 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 12.0 14.6 16.9 141.9 75.9 65.3 3.9 6.8 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 6.7 8.2 15.4 149.4 77.6 67.9 1.9 3.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 21.2 25.2 19.0 144.1 76.4 65.4 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 10.8 12.3 17.3 138.6 75.1 63.9 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 13.3 15.0 18.3 136.7 74.5 64.0 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 12.0 14.2 16.2 143.3 76.2 64.7 3.9 6.9 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 11.3 14.0 16.6 145.4 76.7 65.4 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 12.7 16.1 16.6 142.9 76.2 65.4 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 11.7 13.1 18.0 131.0 72.9 63.9 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 11.2 16.1 18.4 170.2 81.5 67.3 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 10.6 13.2 15.9 144.4 76.5 64.6 3.0 5.7 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 6.0 6.9 14.5 138.6 75.0 65.3 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 11.3 11.8 19.5 128.3 72.1 62.0 4.1 6.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 6.6 7.5 15.6 141.4 75.8 67.0 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 11.3 12.9 24.8 137.9 74.7 64.0 3.9 6.7 10.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 10.9 12.8 16.9 143.7 76.5 65.3 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 6.2 6.9 15.0 134.4 73.9 65.1 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 6.6 7.4 15.9 138.5 75.0 66.5 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 12.5 13.5 17.6 131.4 73.0 62.8 3.8 6.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 11.5 14.9 18.4 152.3 78.6 68.1 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 12.1 15.6 17.6 153.9 78.5 67.1 3.3 6.4 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 8.3 10.5 17.8 154.9 79.2 69.3 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.6 14.1 17.5 159.8 79.7 66.2 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 18.0 21.2 128.8 72.3 62.2 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 6.4 7.7 15.9 150.2 78.0 68.5 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------