***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 10.1 13.1 142.6 76.2 65.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 10.5 11.5 12.4 132.4 73.4 61.4 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 7.2 12.3 12.5 131.2 73.0 62.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.6 13.3 12.9 126.3 71.6 61.6 3.5 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.6 13.0 12.9 123.4 70.6 61.6 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.3 10.4 13.4 125.1 71.3 62.1 3.7 6.1 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 9.4 10.9 12.5 137.3 74.7 63.1 2.7 4.9 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 11.3 14.9 13.0 114.5 67.8 59.9 5.4 9.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 9.6 10.1 13.2 124.3 70.9 61.8 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 9.6 13.1 13.4 118.8 69.1 60.8 4.4 7.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.9 11.8 11.9 119.7 69.6 60.7 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 6.3 8.8 11.6 115.9 68.4 59.8 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 7.5 11.1 12.9 123.9 70.9 62.4 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.1 13.7 114.6 67.4 57.6 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.9 13.4 12.2 129.7 72.7 60.4 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 6.7 9.7 12.2 122.4 70.5 61.3 3.2 5.6 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.8 11.7 124.5 71.2 58.9 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.7 10.0 14.3 114.2 67.2 59.1 3.9 6.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 10.9 11.9 12.4 129.5 72.5 60.6 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.4 9.1 16.6 109.7 66.0 59.0 3.6 6.1 9.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.1 11.6 12.9 129.7 72.5 62.7 2.9 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.9 11.0 12.1 121.4 70.2 57.9 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.1 11.1 12.5 125.5 71.3 59.8 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 9.7 13.1 13.3 117.6 68.5 59.0 4.6 7.9 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 10.4 11.9 14.1 134.6 74.0 64.9 3.2 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.9 8.8 12.8 123.1 70.8 61.4 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 11.9 14.1 14.0 141.3 75.8 66.4 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.5 10.3 12.4 126.2 71.6 60.2 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.1 13.9 15.2 111.7 66.4 58.4 5.3 8.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 9.4 10.7 12.6 136.2 74.4 63.2 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------