***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.5 3.2 3.1 -0.8 40.9 41.4 2.5 4.0 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 3.3 3.3 4.4 0.2 52.5 52.2 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 4.9 3.9 3.9 -0.5 44.6 44.8 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 0.1 -0.5 0.7 -0.2 47.5 47.6 -2.2 -0.2 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 4.8 2.9 1.3 -1.3 35.9 36.5 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.7 3.3 0.3 -1.0 39.5 40.1 2.7 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 3.0 2.4 3.8 -0.2 47.8 47.9 0.9 2.7 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 0.2 -1.6 0.7 -1.3 36.4 37.1 -1.9 -0.3 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 5.7 3.6 2.3 -1.3 36.4 37.0 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.7 2.9 1.6 -1.2 38.3 38.8 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.0 3.1 1.9 -1.2 37.9 38.4 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.6 3.5 1.0 -1.4 35.7 36.5 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 4.8 2.6 1.5 -1.5 35.5 36.1 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 5.2 4.2 3.9 -0.4 45.8 45.9 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 4.3 5.1 3.2 0.8 59.3 58.7 1.9 4.0 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.4 3.5 1.1 -1.3 37.1 37.6 3.1 4.8 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 94 6 100 2.9 3.4 4.4 0.6 57.0 56.6 1.1 2.7 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.1 1.5 1.3 -1.3 37.4 38.0 1.1 2.6 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 3.7 3.9 4.7 0.4 54.8 54.3 1.6 3.4 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 -1.7 33.9 34.7 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 5.0 3.6 3.4 -0.9 40.4 40.8 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 3.7 4.6 5.2 1.0 61.8 61.2 1.6 3.4 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 3.6 4.2 5.1 0.8 58.5 57.7 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 5.6 4.5 3.5 -0.6 44.3 44.5 3.1 5.1 7.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 3.9 2.6 2.2 -0.8 40.5 40.9 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 1.8 2.1 -0.3 -2.2 27.1 28.3 2.7 4.2 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.7 2.9 2.6 -1.0 38.3 38.9 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 4.8 4.7 1.9 0.2 52.4 52.1 2.3 4.4 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.0 0.6 0.5 -1.6 34.4 35.2 0.4 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 3.5 2.6 3.8 -0.4 45.6 45.8 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------