***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.3 3.1 3.7 -0.5 44.9 46.8 1.7 3.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.4 3.6 -0.7 43.6 46.4 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.4 4.0 -0.6 44.3 46.3 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -3.0 -1.7 0.8 -0.8 42.6 44.1 -2.7 -0.9 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.8 1.9 -0.9 41.4 43.5 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.6 1.6 -0.3 47.3 48.0 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.6 2.9 3.7 -0.7 43.5 46.3 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -3.7 -2.5 1.5 -1.0 39.9 42.8 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.7 4.2 2.6 -1.0 40.4 42.7 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.9 1.9 -1.2 39.1 42.1 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.6 4.2 2.0 -0.8 41.9 44.1 3.1 5.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.6 4.3 2.0 -0.7 42.5 44.8 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.4 4.4 1.8 -0.5 45.2 46.9 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.4 4.8 3.2 -1.0 40.8 43.6 3.8 6.0 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.1 1.6 -0.6 44.7 45.8 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.6 1.9 -0.5 44.6 46.1 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.7 3.0 3.6 -0.9 41.5 44.8 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.0 3.0 1.9 -1.3 38.1 41.4 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.6 3.9 -0.6 44.1 46.7 2.2 4.3 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -0.6 0.5 0.4 -1.1 38.5 42.1 -0.1 1.6 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.6 4.3 3.3 -0.8 42.8 44.7 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.5 3.6 3.6 -0.9 40.8 44.3 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.0 4.2 -0.6 44.4 46.7 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.1 4.5 3.0 -1.1 40.3 43.0 3.6 5.6 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.1 1.9 -0.7 42.8 44.8 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.3 3.9 1.5 -0.6 43.8 45.7 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.6 3.5 3.1 -0.6 44.3 46.3 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.3 4.7 1.3 -0.7 43.9 45.1 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -0.7 0.5 1.4 -1.3 38.0 41.5 -0.1 1.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.3 3.6 -0.6 44.3 46.8 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------