***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.6 5.3 0.2 52.0 52.2 3.7 6.3 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.1 5.9 5.0 -0.2 48.6 50.4 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.5 7.4 5.7 0.1 51.2 51.5 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.9 1.1 2.5 0.1 50.6 50.3 -1.1 1.1 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.2 3.8 0.2 51.5 51.4 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.8 7.2 3.7 1.0 60.0 57.4 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.5 5.1 -0.1 49.0 50.7 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -0.7 3.3 0.2 52.2 52.7 -2.3 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.9 4.6 0.2 51.4 51.4 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.5 3.9 0.1 51.3 51.7 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.7 3.9 0.3 53.0 52.8 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.7 4.0 0.5 54.5 54.2 5.1 7.2 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.0 8.1 3.8 0.8 58.0 56.8 4.9 7.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.1 5.1 0.1 51.0 51.5 5.5 7.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.2 3.0 0.0 50.0 49.8 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.3 3.9 0.6 56.0 54.9 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.3 5.4 5.0 -0.3 47.4 49.7 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.7 4.1 0.2 51.9 52.1 4.6 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.1 5.3 -0.1 49.2 50.7 3.7 6.2 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.5 2.2 0.3 52.6 53.2 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.6 5.2 0.2 52.0 51.7 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.6 5.9 5.0 -0.4 46.4 48.9 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.7 5.8 0.1 50.5 51.3 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.0 5.0 0.1 51.1 51.4 5.6 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.2 3.7 0.2 51.7 51.5 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.2 3.4 0.5 55.8 55.8 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.9 4.8 0.3 52.5 52.4 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.5 7.5 2.9 0.1 51.2 50.7 4.9 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.8 3.4 0.2 51.6 52.3 1.7 3.6 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.0 5.9 5.1 0.0 49.6 50.9 3.6 6.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------