***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.0 3.9 -0.3 45.3 47.1 3.0 4.4 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.9 4.2 -0.2 47.0 48.6 2.7 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.9 4.4 -0.4 45.2 46.9 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.4 -0.5 1.1 -0.3 45.4 46.2 -1.5 -0.1 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.4 2.2 -0.7 40.3 42.6 3.7 5.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.6 1.8 0.0 50.8 50.8 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.3 3.4 4.0 -0.3 45.8 47.7 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.5 -1.7 1.7 -0.7 38.8 41.7 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.9 4.9 3.0 -0.8 39.0 41.8 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.4 4.3 2.2 -0.8 38.5 41.4 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.7 4.7 2.5 -0.5 42.0 44.0 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.9 4.9 2.2 -0.5 41.9 44.1 4.1 5.5 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.6 4.9 2.3 -0.3 45.6 47.0 3.8 5.2 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.1 3.8 -0.6 41.6 43.9 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.1 4.7 2.5 0.1 52.0 51.5 3.1 4.6 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.1 5.3 2.2 -0.3 45.5 46.7 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.3 3.6 4.1 -0.2 47.1 48.7 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 2.5 3.2 2.1 -0.9 37.0 40.4 2.9 4.0 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.2 4.4 -0.1 48.1 49.4 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 0.4 1.0 0.5 -0.9 35.6 39.6 0.8 2.0 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.8 4.9 3.8 -0.5 43.0 45.0 4.0 5.4 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.0 4.3 4.4 -0.2 47.6 49.1 3.1 4.5 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.5 4.8 0.0 49.8 50.6 3.1 4.5 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.1 3.6 -0.6 41.4 43.7 4.4 5.9 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.7 3.7 2.5 -0.4 43.4 45.3 2.9 4.2 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.4 4.3 1.5 -0.6 40.4 42.8 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.2 3.4 -0.4 44.0 46.1 3.3 4.7 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.3 1.9 -0.1 48.9 48.9 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 0.6 1.3 1.5 -1.0 35.2 39.1 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.6 4.0 -0.3 45.3 47.3 2.6 4.0 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------