***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9.2 10.2 13.1 143.5 76.2 71.1 2.0 4.2 7.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 8.5 9.7 11.2 139.0 75.1 67.4 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 11.7 12.0 12.3 132.2 73.3 68.8 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 9.2 9.3 10.6 84.9 57.1 52.3 3.9 7.4 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 10.8 10.6 14.1 120.3 69.6 65.6 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 4.6 5.2 10.6 93.3 59.3 55.2 2.0 3.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 6.9 7.7 11.3 141.4 75.7 67.3 1.9 3.5 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 16.0 16.9 16.3 124.6 70.9 66.8 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 8.1 7.9 13.4 120.9 69.9 66.3 2.0 4.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 9.8 10.0 16.0 127.0 71.6 67.9 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 4.8 7.3 13.4 114.7 67.5 63.7 1.8 3.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 4.8 6.9 13.7 116.1 68.1 63.9 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 4.8 6.5 14.0 110.4 66.0 61.9 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 12.1 13.9 16.2 131.4 73.1 68.0 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 4.2 6.4 55.4 45.9 40.1 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 4.6 6.3 12.4 104.4 64.0 60.2 1.7 3.7 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 6.9 7.7 11.2 138.9 75.1 66.1 1.9 3.5 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 10.7 11.7 17.9 137.7 74.9 71.3 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 10.7 11.8 11.6 136.5 74.5 68.0 2.0 4.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 10.3 11.6 21.7 140.0 75.6 71.5 2.8 5.2 8.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 9.3 9.6 13.0 124.4 71.1 66.7 2.3 4.6 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 10.5 11.3 11.9 136.9 74.6 66.7 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 10.5 11.0 12.3 132.2 73.3 68.2 2.1 4.6 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 10.7 11.6 15.2 130.4 72.8 68.7 2.7 5.3 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 10.1 10.8 15.3 135.5 74.0 69.1 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 3.4 4.7 12.7 109.6 65.6 61.2 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 9.2 10.4 14.1 144.9 76.5 71.4 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 6.1 4.8 8.2 69.5 50.7 45.9 2.4 4.7 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 16.7 18.8 19.4 141.0 75.9 72.0 4.1 8.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 8.9 10.0 11.4 138.4 74.9 68.1 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------