***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9.1 10.8 15.9 138.4 75.0 66.6 2.8 5.1 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 8.9 10.8 14.4 140.1 75.4 64.2 2.6 4.8 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 12.3 14.0 15.9 140.4 75.5 67.0 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 11.8 15.9 19.3 161.4 80.0 69.3 4.5 7.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 7.1 12.5 17.6 144.5 76.6 65.6 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 9.7 12.8 16.6 149.2 77.6 68.7 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.6 9.8 13.7 135.9 74.3 63.4 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 14.8 19.2 20.1 161.1 80.2 71.3 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 8.6 11.0 18.1 148.9 77.8 67.3 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 10.2 12.6 18.0 145.3 77.0 67.1 3.9 6.3 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.8 11.3 16.9 138.0 75.0 63.9 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 10.6 14.0 18.3 157.7 79.5 70.5 3.3 6.0 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 47 53 100 10.0 13.1 17.3 146.5 77.0 68.3 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 18.5 21.6 18.7 138.5 75.1 66.6 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 12.4 18.5 18.6 167.1 80.8 68.6 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 8.9 11.6 17.3 149.5 77.6 67.8 2.9 5.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 8.7 10.6 14.4 143.7 76.2 65.2 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 11.5 14.0 19.3 149.9 78.1 70.0 4.1 6.7 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 9.8 11.7 14.8 139.4 75.2 64.6 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 13.0 17.8 28.7 173.5 83.0 74.0 4.1 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 9.9 12.5 18.3 152.8 78.6 69.4 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 9.9 11.8 15.2 144.9 76.5 65.4 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 9.3 11.0 15.6 139.1 75.1 65.9 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 14.9 17.3 18.1 144.8 76.7 68.8 5.0 8.5 13.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 11.8 14.9 18.8 147.8 77.4 68.4 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 9.1 12.6 19.0 162.9 80.8 73.9 2.6 4.8 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 11.0 13.5 17.1 142.5 76.1 67.8 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 8.3 11.5 17.7 157.8 79.2 67.7 2.4 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 19.9 24.8 22.4 157.6 79.9 72.2 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 8.9 10.8 14.6 138.8 75.1 64.7 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------