***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.8 7.3 13.7 132.3 73.3 57.9 1.5 3.2 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.9 5.6 11.1 117.3 69.0 53.0 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.9 10.5 13.4 130.1 72.7 57.2 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 13.7 16.1 15.9 145.6 76.7 62.3 4.1 7.4 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 14.3 15.2 14.9 131.4 73.0 60.1 4.0 7.5 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.7 11.7 12.4 115.5 68.1 57.9 3.9 6.8 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.7 6.4 10.9 119.2 69.5 53.0 1.9 3.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.3 19.3 14.7 115.6 67.9 57.0 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 10.4 10.6 14.9 124.1 70.7 58.5 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 12.2 14.7 115.1 67.6 56.7 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.7 13.6 120.3 69.6 58.0 3.9 6.9 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.6 10.4 13.0 114.6 67.8 57.0 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.9 12.5 13.4 116.9 68.6 57.7 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.3 10.6 14.6 111.8 66.5 55.0 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 11.0 13.8 15.8 150.4 77.6 62.0 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.5 10.8 13.3 121.5 70.1 58.6 3.0 5.7 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.3 5.7 10.4 117.0 68.9 52.6 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.1 15.0 110.8 66.0 55.5 4.1 6.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.5 6.2 11.7 120.7 70.0 54.6 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 11.5 21.0 124.6 70.6 58.9 3.9 6.7 10.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 10.6 11.5 14.7 132.1 73.2 59.2 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.3 6.1 11.3 121.5 70.3 54.6 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.3 6.3 12.7 122.2 70.4 56.3 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.3 14.0 113.4 67.1 55.3 3.8 6.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 11.6 12.7 15.3 135.1 74.0 60.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.4 11.6 13.3 118.8 69.3 57.7 3.3 6.4 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 8.3 13.8 126.9 71.8 57.5 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 10.5 12.1 14.8 140.0 75.2 61.2 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 15.8 16.7 114.3 67.3 56.3 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.9 6.2 11.9 122.5 70.6 54.3 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------