***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.5 8.3 12.4 128.8 72.4 55.7 2.3 4.3 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.9 11.3 10.9 129.2 72.7 57.1 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.1 12.0 12.2 128.1 72.2 55.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.9 13.6 13.7 127.6 72.2 56.9 3.5 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.8 12.2 12.7 115.7 68.4 53.2 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.3 11.2 109.6 66.7 54.1 3.7 6.1 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 9.5 10.3 10.8 130.8 73.0 58.0 2.7 4.9 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.5 14.4 13.5 110.3 66.6 52.2 5.4 9.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.1 9.2 12.9 113.4 67.7 52.7 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.4 11.8 13.0 107.2 65.4 51.5 4.4 7.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.2 10.7 11.7 109.4 66.4 52.4 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.4 11.9 110.8 67.0 52.8 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.9 11.8 110.1 66.8 53.7 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.5 13.9 14.3 119.0 69.5 54.2 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 12.8 14.9 14.0 140.7 75.5 59.2 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.2 8.8 11.5 110.8 67.1 53.5 3.2 5.6 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.1 12.1 10.5 125.9 71.9 56.6 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.7 13.9 109.2 66.1 52.0 3.9 6.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.1 12.2 11.4 130.9 73.1 56.7 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.6 19.8 116.3 68.4 53.4 3.6 6.1 9.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.0 11.0 12.9 122.9 70.6 53.8 2.9 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.6 11.8 11.2 128.4 72.5 56.9 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.7 11.8 12.2 131.5 73.2 56.0 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.6 13.2 13.3 117.2 68.8 53.7 4.6 7.9 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.5 11.5 14.2 130.4 72.8 56.7 3.2 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.7 8.9 13.0 123.7 71.1 57.2 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.6 12.5 13.0 128.3 72.3 56.6 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.9 10.3 12.7 126.0 71.7 56.8 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.4 14.0 15.5 111.0 66.7 52.5 5.3 8.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.8 10.1 11.3 129.2 72.6 56.8 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------