***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 34.2 39.1 55.1 135.7 78.1 69.9 15.3 22.4 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 35.2 39.2 47.7 131.4 75.4 67.1 15.6 23.1 32.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 47.1 53.0 53.8 133.0 76.8 68.6 20.2 30.0 41.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 52.9 59.6 59.6 129.0 75.1 66.1 23.3 34.9 49.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 48.6 54.9 59.3 128.3 75.5 66.8 24.1 34.1 45.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 40.5 39.9 50.8 117.1 68.8 62.9 18.4 27.2 37.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 32.2 35.6 46.7 131.7 75.5 67.4 15.6 22.1 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 70.6 76.9 64.6 128.0 75.2 68.5 33.3 47.5 64.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 38.3 42.0 59.3 127.2 75.0 66.6 18.9 26.6 35.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 48.8 51.2 61.7 123.8 73.3 66.0 22.6 32.7 44.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 43.1 44.4 55.6 121.1 71.3 64.0 19.6 28.9 39.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 39.2 42.8 56.9 125.0 73.6 67.1 15.9 24.9 35.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 44.0 44.8 56.5 121.1 71.5 65.3 19.2 28.6 39.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 59.1 63.0 63.9 125.3 73.9 66.5 30.3 41.6 54.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 33.7 50.8 54.7 127.2 73.0 63.1 16.9 27.9 42.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 38.3 40.0 54.6 121.7 71.6 64.5 16.4 25.1 35.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 34.4 37.5 46.5 131.7 75.4 66.9 16.0 23.0 31.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 44.7 49.1 66.2 126.8 75.3 68.5 19.5 29.0 40.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 39.3 43.9 49.5 131.9 75.9 67.6 18.5 26.7 36.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 45.4 54.3 91.2 138.8 80.1 73.1 20.7 29.9 40.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 42.0 47.6 58.9 133.7 77.9 69.4 21.6 29.5 38.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 38.1 43.2 49.7 133.3 76.4 68.1 17.0 25.0 34.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 38.1 43.3 52.9 131.4 76.0 67.9 17.1 25.3 35.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 53.0 56.2 60.5 126.6 74.7 67.7 27.1 37.1 48.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 45.6 54.1 63.6 137.5 79.7 70.9 22.2 31.2 41.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 36.1 41.1 58.1 129.0 76.0 69.6 14.9 23.0 32.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 41.9 48.1 58.1 135.7 78.3 70.3 19.0 27.5 37.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 38.3 40.5 53.3 122.4 71.3 62.8 14.7 23.9 35.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 70.5 79.4 74.0 131.0 77.3 70.7 31.2 45.5 62.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 35.0 38.8 49.1 132.2 75.8 67.7 15.7 23.1 31.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------