***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 4.4 4.1 4.2 0.1 51.4 51.2 2.5 4.0 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 3.6 3.5 4.6 0.4 54.3 53.8 1.5 3.1 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 4.8 5.2 5.4 0.8 58.3 57.6 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.5 -1.6 -0.1 -1.2 38.3 39.1 -2.3 -0.3 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 4.6 4.9 3.5 0.7 56.9 56.4 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 4.6 5.3 2.4 1.1 61.1 60.3 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 3.3 3.0 4.2 0.2 52.2 51.9 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 -0.2 0.3 3.0 0.9 58.1 57.5 -2.0 -0.5 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 5.6 6.2 4.7 1.0 59.7 58.8 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 4.6 5.3 4.0 1.1 60.2 59.4 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 4.9 5.7 4.5 1.3 62.1 61.1 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 5.4 6.0 3.4 1.0 59.3 58.7 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 4.7 5.5 4.4 1.4 62.7 61.9 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 5.3 6.2 5.6 1.2 60.9 60.0 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.5 2.2 1.3 -1.3 35.7 36.7 1.9 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 5.3 5.9 3.6 1.1 60.4 59.7 3.2 4.9 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 3.2 3.0 3.9 0.1 51.5 51.2 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 3.1 3.6 3.7 1.2 60.4 59.8 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 3.9 4.2 5.0 0.7 57.3 56.6 1.7 3.4 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 2.2 2.6 2.0 0.8 57.4 57.0 0.2 1.9 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 5.0 5.4 5.2 0.8 58.0 57.3 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 3.9 3.9 4.6 0.4 54.5 54.0 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 3.9 4.6 5.6 1.2 61.6 60.5 1.9 3.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 5.6 6.6 5.5 1.4 62.3 61.4 3.2 5.2 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 3.8 3.4 3.1 0.0 49.5 49.4 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 4.6 4.8 2.3 0.5 55.1 54.9 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 4.4 4.0 3.8 0.1 50.9 50.8 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.4 3.4 0.9 -1.0 40.2 41.0 2.4 4.6 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 2.7 3.4 3.3 1.3 61.0 60.3 0.6 2.3 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 3.5 3.5 4.6 0.4 54.7 54.2 1.5 3.1 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------