***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.7 4.2 0.2 51.6 50.4 1.6 3.6 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.7 4.5 0.3 53.4 52.6 1.5 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.9 4.8 0.4 53.5 52.0 2.3 4.4 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.6 -0.6 1.0 -0.3 47.5 47.4 -2.5 -0.3 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.5 2.7 -0.1 49.4 48.8 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.8 3.4 1.1 -0.5 44.7 45.8 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.1 4.2 0.2 52.1 51.5 1.0 2.8 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -1.7 1.9 -0.3 47.1 47.7 -3.1 -1.4 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.2 3.8 0.1 51.2 50.1 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.4 2.8 -0.1 49.4 49.0 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.8 3.0 0.0 50.5 49.6 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.4 2.3 -0.2 48.1 48.4 2.6 4.7 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.2 2.1 -0.4 45.8 46.8 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.4 4.6 0.4 53.4 51.8 2.6 5.0 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.5 2.3 -0.1 48.9 48.5 1.5 3.6 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.0 2.2 -0.2 48.2 48.2 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.1 4.3 0.3 53.4 53.0 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.0 2.7 -0.1 49.1 49.0 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.1 4.7 0.4 54.3 53.1 1.5 3.6 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.5 0.9 0.6 -0.6 43.5 45.6 -0.3 1.7 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.0 4.4 0.2 52.0 50.7 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.1 4.6 0.5 54.7 53.7 1.7 3.6 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.0 5.0 0.5 55.1 53.4 1.6 3.4 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.0 4.3 0.2 52.3 51.1 2.6 4.7 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.3 2.8 -0.1 49.1 48.6 1.7 3.4 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.5 1.1 -0.7 41.9 44.2 2.7 4.2 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.1 3.6 0.0 50.4 49.6 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.3 1.8 -0.2 48.5 48.2 2.2 4.5 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.5 1.4 2.0 -0.2 47.5 48.1 -0.3 1.7 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.4 4.4 0.3 52.9 51.9 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------