***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.6 4.5 -0.3 46.8 48.3 1.9 4.0 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.0 4.0 4.5 -0.4 46.8 48.4 2.4 4.3 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.0 5.0 -0.2 47.9 49.1 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -0.1 -1.4 1.7 -0.5 45.3 46.2 -2.8 -0.9 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.5 3.0 -0.3 46.7 47.4 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.6 2.0 -0.4 45.8 46.3 2.2 4.0 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.5 4.5 -0.4 46.4 48.1 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -1.9 2.5 -0.3 47.1 47.5 -3.3 -1.6 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.3 3.9 -0.2 47.9 48.5 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.0 3.2 -0.3 47.5 48.0 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.0 4.8 2.9 -0.4 46.3 47.1 3.4 5.2 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.9 2.9 -0.3 46.9 47.4 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.0 4.7 2.2 -0.4 46.1 46.9 3.3 5.1 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.1 5.9 4.4 -0.3 47.2 48.0 4.1 6.2 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.5 2.5 -0.3 47.3 47.9 2.9 4.8 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.9 2.5 -0.5 45.4 46.3 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.7 3.7 4.5 -0.5 45.6 47.4 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.1 3.4 -0.2 48.1 48.6 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.2 4.1 4.8 -0.3 47.2 48.6 2.4 4.4 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.4 1.5 1.4 -0.3 47.2 47.5 0.0 1.7 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.1 4.5 -0.2 48.0 48.8 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 5.5 4.4 4.7 -0.5 45.8 47.4 2.8 4.9 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.6 4.6 5.1 -0.3 47.6 48.8 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.7 4.3 -0.2 48.1 48.8 3.9 5.9 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.6 2.9 -0.4 46.1 47.2 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.4 2.2 -0.2 47.3 47.5 3.0 4.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.9 3.9 -0.4 46.1 47.6 2.4 4.4 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.2 2.1 -0.4 45.8 46.6 3.7 5.7 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.8 2.7 -0.2 47.7 48.2 0.2 2.0 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.8 3.8 4.5 -0.3 47.2 48.7 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------