***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.9 5.2 0.2 52.0 52.2 4.1 6.6 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.3 5.1 0.0 50.2 51.3 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.5 7.6 5.7 0.2 51.6 51.9 5.1 7.4 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 2.1 1.5 2.6 0.3 53.2 52.7 -1.0 1.2 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.6 7.8 3.9 0.4 53.7 53.1 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.0 7.1 3.1 0.7 56.2 54.6 4.5 6.4 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.8 5.8 5.1 0.0 49.9 51.1 3.5 5.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.3 -0.6 3.3 0.3 52.6 52.6 -2.1 -0.7 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.3 8.3 4.7 0.4 53.3 52.9 5.8 7.9 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 7.9 3.9 0.3 52.7 52.5 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.9 8.0 3.9 0.4 53.7 53.4 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.0 7.8 3.8 0.4 54.2 53.8 5.3 7.4 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.7 7.9 3.3 0.5 55.0 54.1 5.1 7.3 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.9 7.9 4.9 0.0 49.6 50.5 5.6 8.0 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.9 3.4 0.5 54.8 54.0 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.3 8.3 3.5 0.4 54.2 53.7 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.3 5.8 5.1 -0.1 49.1 50.8 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.5 7.1 3.9 0.2 51.7 52.0 4.9 6.9 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.2 6.5 5.4 0.0 50.4 51.4 4.0 6.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 1.1 3.5 1.9 0.1 50.9 51.5 1.5 3.4 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.9 8.0 5.2 0.3 53.0 52.7 5.4 7.6 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.7 6.5 5.2 -0.1 48.8 50.7 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.7 6.8 5.7 0.0 50.3 51.2 4.4 6.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.3 8.2 4.9 0.1 51.0 51.4 5.8 8.1 10.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.0 6.6 3.7 0.3 53.0 52.6 4.3 6.3 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.9 7.4 3.2 0.5 55.4 54.2 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.1 4.7 0.2 52.2 52.1 4.7 6.8 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.4 7.9 3.0 0.4 54.0 53.4 4.8 7.3 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 1.3 3.7 3.3 0.1 50.9 51.6 1.8 3.6 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.2 6.3 5.1 0.1 50.8 51.6 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------