***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.6 4.5 0.0 50.6 50.4 3.0 4.5 5.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.4 4.7 0.1 51.3 51.5 2.8 4.3 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.7 5.2 0.3 53.8 53.1 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -1.7 -0.5 1.3 -0.4 44.5 45.0 -1.4 -0.1 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.4 3.3 0.2 52.4 51.6 3.8 5.2 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.9 2.1 0.2 53.2 52.0 3.4 4.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.4 3.8 4.5 0.0 50.0 50.4 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.6 -0.9 2.7 0.1 52.1 51.2 -2.1 -1.1 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.3 4.3 0.3 54.3 53.2 4.5 5.9 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.7 3.5 0.3 53.8 52.7 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.9 3.6 0.3 54.7 53.5 4.0 5.5 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.8 3.1 0.2 53.3 52.3 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.7 3.0 0.3 54.1 53.0 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.4 4.9 0.3 54.1 53.1 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.3 2.4 -0.3 46.0 46.2 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.1 2.9 0.2 53.2 52.3 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.9 4.5 0.0 49.7 50.3 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.5 3.4 0.3 53.8 52.8 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.7 5.0 0.2 52.8 52.6 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.6 2.2 1.5 0.0 50.1 49.7 0.9 2.2 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.9 4.8 0.3 53.8 52.9 4.1 5.5 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.7 4.8 0.1 51.1 51.2 3.1 4.6 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.0 5.3 0.4 54.8 53.9 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.4 4.8 0.4 55.1 54.0 4.5 6.0 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.2 3.1 -0.1 49.2 49.0 3.0 4.3 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.1 2.2 0.0 50.2 49.8 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.8 4.0 0.0 49.8 49.8 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.8 5.2 2.0 -0.3 46.2 46.5 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.9 2.7 2.8 0.2 53.1 52.3 1.2 2.4 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.3 4.7 0.1 51.7 51.6 2.7 4.1 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------