***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 10.2 17.9 20.7 231.1 89.7 82.8 2.2 4.4 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 10.1 18.3 19.5 246.0 91.1 83.7 1.9 4.0 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 13.4 23.4 19.9 221.6 88.8 81.4 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 18.3 28.3 23.4 206.4 87.0 79.6 4.1 8.0 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 13.5 22.7 22.9 214.6 88.2 80.7 2.5 5.3 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 10.3 20.7 26.3 265.4 93.1 85.2 2.2 4.2 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 7.6 13.3 19.6 255.6 91.8 84.2 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 21.2 36.0 24.7 223.7 89.3 82.2 4.5 9.0 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 10.6 16.5 20.5 208.7 87.7 80.0 2.6 4.9 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 12.3 19.7 22.6 197.5 86.7 79.0 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 10.9 18.2 22.2 213.7 88.4 80.5 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 10.1 17.3 23.4 237.8 90.8 83.4 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 10.3 17.1 26.1 224.8 89.9 82.1 2.5 4.7 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 15.4 24.5 23.7 208.3 87.5 79.0 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 11.8 16.5 18.0 177.7 82.1 74.2 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 10.4 19.9 25.1 239.1 91.0 83.1 1.8 3.8 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 7.7 14.1 20.0 266.5 92.4 85.3 2.0 3.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 12.8 19.7 23.6 198.7 87.0 79.3 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 12.4 23.0 19.9 240.0 90.7 83.3 2.0 4.5 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 12.4 22.0 30.8 234.4 90.8 84.0 2.7 5.3 8.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 11.6 19.8 20.7 219.4 88.8 81.5 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 11.6 21.7 21.4 263.3 92.2 85.8 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 12.1 22.0 20.2 230.6 90.0 81.6 2.3 4.9 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 13.6 22.0 21.1 197.6 86.4 77.9 2.9 6.0 10.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 12.0 19.2 23.2 217.8 88.1 81.8 2.6 5.0 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 6.9 12.1 26.7 260.1 92.7 86.6 2.0 3.4 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 10.7 18.0 21.7 229.0 89.3 82.9 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 11.3 17.5 21.2 202.4 86.0 77.7 2.1 4.6 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 20.2 34.5 25.6 210.9 88.6 81.1 4.0 8.3 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 9.8 18.2 19.5 238.3 90.5 83.0 1.6 3.6 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------