***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.0 9.2 88.9 58.3 47.3 3.4 6.2 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.3 8.8 101.3 64.0 48.2 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.0 9.8 93.5 60.5 47.9 3.6 7.0 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.0 6.9 8.8 72.2 50.5 40.5 3.7 6.8 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.3 12.3 101.4 63.3 53.9 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.3 11.5 102.3 63.4 53.7 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.9 8.4 97.6 62.6 47.6 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.8 12.4 92.6 59.7 51.1 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.6 8.3 11.8 95.8 61.2 52.2 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.5 12.6 97.1 61.6 52.8 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.0 9.6 12.7 103.0 63.6 55.2 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.8 11.1 89.5 58.2 50.1 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.8 11.4 13.7 109.8 66.3 57.3 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.7 16.4 14.1 106.5 65.2 51.1 5.9 10.5 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.0 5.6 7.4 66.2 50.0 38.8 2.6 5.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.6 9.1 12.2 102.2 63.5 54.7 3.0 5.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.6 8.1 96.9 62.6 48.7 2.7 5.0 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.3 10.0 14.3 103.9 64.0 54.7 3.5 6.6 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.4 9.4 102.7 64.4 48.2 3.1 6.0 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.9 11.1 18.3 105.6 64.7 56.1 3.6 6.9 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.6 10.8 92.0 59.7 49.2 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.5 8.9 8.8 101.7 64.5 49.7 2.9 5.5 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.5 9.2 10.8 107.0 65.6 50.3 2.9 5.6 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.7 13.0 102.5 63.5 52.2 4.6 8.4 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.3 11.6 96.0 61.0 51.7 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.2 11.1 86.5 56.7 48.0 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.7 10.1 92.8 59.9 49.8 2.9 6.2 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.3 8.9 78.0 54.2 43.8 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.8 16.1 15.8 104.2 64.0 54.6 6.2 10.9 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.8 8.2 8.8 97.4 62.5 47.5 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------