***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.3 2.8 9.3 81.0 53.5 41.2 1.3 2.5 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.5 7.9 82.9 55.3 41.6 1.9 3.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.2 9.3 81.8 53.8 40.5 2.6 4.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.0 7.1 9.6 76.8 51.2 40.1 4.0 6.9 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.4 10.3 79.0 52.1 42.2 4.1 7.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.1 5.6 9.1 74.4 50.1 41.7 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.9 3.7 7.4 80.6 54.3 41.6 1.9 3.3 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.4 12.4 11.1 82.6 54.1 44.3 6.3 11.0 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.1 4.7 11.1 80.6 53.0 43.3 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.3 6.9 11.7 83.7 54.2 44.3 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.8 5.7 10.0 80.3 52.3 42.4 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.9 9.7 79.8 53.1 43.4 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.3 6.3 10.1 78.1 51.1 43.0 3.0 6.0 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.2 7.5 12.8 90.5 57.8 46.3 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.8 5.0 9.0 79.4 54.5 39.0 1.7 4.2 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.8 5.3 9.6 78.2 51.3 42.3 2.7 5.0 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.8 3.8 7.5 84.8 56.8 43.4 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.5 7.4 13.2 90.0 56.9 46.8 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.7 3.5 8.3 83.2 55.2 41.1 1.7 3.0 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.2 15.7 86.5 55.9 46.8 3.3 6.0 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.7 5.4 10.4 81.4 53.2 42.2 2.9 5.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.7 3.8 8.3 87.4 57.7 42.9 1.6 3.0 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.5 3.3 9.3 84.3 55.5 41.9 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.6 7.5 11.8 88.3 56.5 45.2 3.7 6.3 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.7 5.4 10.8 81.1 52.9 42.9 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.8 6.0 9.5 79.0 53.6 43.3 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.3 4.3 10.0 81.8 53.5 42.5 2.3 3.9 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.6 9.0 77.8 52.3 39.6 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.7 11.8 14.4 91.7 57.7 47.8 5.9 9.7 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.8 3.3 8.2 81.4 54.2 40.3 1.9 3.0 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------