***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 9.4 13.0 140.0 75.3 57.2 2.4 4.4 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.0 11.5 10.5 136.4 74.4 54.9 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.3 13.7 12.7 139.7 75.3 55.9 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.9 15.7 14.7 135.2 74.1 55.1 4.0 7.5 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.0 15.2 14.4 130.7 72.9 54.6 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.6 12.5 112.0 66.8 50.3 3.6 6.1 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.3 9.5 10.2 132.6 73.4 54.7 2.6 4.8 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.9 18.7 14.8 123.1 70.5 52.6 5.5 10.2 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.5 11.4 14.6 125.5 71.5 54.0 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.7 14.2 14.9 120.2 69.7 52.7 4.5 8.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.8 13.2 13.6 125.8 71.5 53.0 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.4 10.4 13.3 123.9 70.9 52.1 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.5 13.3 114.7 67.8 51.5 3.9 6.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.7 14.3 13.6 116.7 68.6 51.9 4.3 8.0 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.4 14.4 13.7 129.2 72.6 52.0 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.5 10.3 13.0 119.9 69.6 52.0 3.4 5.9 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.8 9.4 123.1 70.6 52.6 3.3 5.9 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.3 10.5 14.9 115.6 68.1 52.3 3.8 6.5 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.3 13.4 10.9 136.6 74.5 55.2 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.7 11.1 19.0 118.3 68.8 53.0 3.4 6.2 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.1 14.3 14.1 133.2 73.6 55.1 3.7 6.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.6 9.5 119.0 69.4 51.9 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.7 12.5 11.6 133.2 73.5 55.2 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.9 15.0 13.7 122.4 70.4 53.0 4.5 8.2 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.9 13.7 14.9 135.2 74.1 57.3 3.6 6.7 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.4 8.2 13.0 118.4 69.3 51.0 2.2 4.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.0 14.1 13.4 133.6 73.6 57.0 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.5 11.4 13.4 127.0 71.8 52.5 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 16.8 15.7 114.1 67.5 52.3 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.9 11.7 11.2 139.9 75.3 55.6 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------