***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 33.8 37.8 52.2 130.2 75.6 66.8 15.6 22.6 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 35.2 41.2 46.8 138.1 78.4 68.5 15.5 23.0 31.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 47.4 52.1 51.6 129.6 75.3 65.7 20.8 30.8 42.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 54.0 55.9 56.5 120.5 70.9 62.1 23.8 35.7 50.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 51.7 57.1 59.9 127.9 75.5 66.3 24.5 35.1 47.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 43.1 52.1 59.5 133.2 79.0 68.3 18.7 28.0 39.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 32.3 36.6 45.6 137.5 78.0 68.9 15.5 21.7 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 74.2 80.0 63.1 125.9 74.8 66.0 34.2 49.5 67.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 41.2 42.0 57.9 122.1 72.3 63.4 19.5 27.7 37.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 50.0 52.0 61.8 121.6 72.5 64.0 23.0 33.4 45.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 46.2 50.6 58.5 127.3 75.5 66.2 20.3 30.0 41.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 42.8 47.7 57.5 127.3 75.4 66.0 17.0 26.4 38.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 47.0 55.1 63.2 130.0 77.4 67.5 20.1 30.4 42.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 61.7 65.2 64.1 127.5 75.3 65.0 30.8 42.1 55.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 36.1 41.8 48.1 111.1 64.7 56.2 17.2 28.8 43.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 41.7 48.8 59.9 131.5 77.8 68.1 17.1 26.0 37.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 33.8 39.2 45.0 139.2 78.4 70.8 15.9 22.7 30.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 47.0 50.1 66.0 124.0 74.3 66.2 21.0 30.8 42.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 40.6 46.6 48.5 137.0 78.2 67.9 18.8 27.0 36.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 47.3 54.1 83.7 129.2 76.7 68.9 22.8 32.4 43.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 45.2 46.9 55.9 125.7 73.9 64.9 22.8 31.2 40.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 38.3 45.2 48.1 139.9 79.2 71.0 17.0 25.0 34.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 40.1 45.3 52.0 134.5 77.5 67.0 17.3 25.5 35.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 55.9 58.0 59.6 124.4 73.8 64.7 28.6 38.9 50.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 47.9 51.6 60.5 128.5 75.2 67.5 22.6 32.0 43.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 36.9 43.8 60.3 130.8 76.9 66.4 15.2 23.7 33.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 42.9 46.9 55.2 129.5 75.5 67.4 19.6 28.2 38.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.6 40.6 52.5 119.2 70.0 60.8 15.1 24.7 36.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 72.9 80.7 71.5 125.8 75.4 67.5 32.9 48.2 66.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 34.8 40.5 47.7 135.3 77.4 67.1 15.8 23.1 31.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------