***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 -5.3 -3.1 -1.1 27.7 38.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 -4.9 -5.1 -3.3 -1.2 26.0 37.8 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 -2.3 -2.6 -3.4 -1.2 25.0 36.9 -2.0 -0.7 0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -7.9 -8.4 -5.8 -1.5 23.3 32.3 -7.5 -6.2 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 -4.7 -5.0 -5.4 -1.5 23.4 32.9 -4.3 -3.1 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 -6.2 -6.9 -7.9 -2.1 15.1 23.2 -5.3 -4.1 -3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -4.7 -4.8 -3.3 -1.1 27.4 38.5 -4.3 -2.9 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -9.3 -10.0 -6.8 -1.8 18.6 28.2 -8.9 -7.8 -6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 -3.8 -3.7 -4.5 -1.1 29.6 38.1 -3.4 -2.2 -1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 -4.2 -4.5 -6.0 -1.5 24.0 32.6 -3.8 -2.7 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 -4.6 -5.3 -5.7 -1.7 20.1 30.5 -4.2 -3.0 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 -5.4 -6.2 -6.0 -1.9 17.9 28.4 -4.9 -3.8 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 -5.3 -6.0 -6.6 -2.0 16.3 25.9 -4.5 -3.3 -2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 -3.3 -3.7 -4.6 -1.4 23.8 34.3 -3.0 -1.9 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 -4.4 -4.0 -4.9 -0.9 33.3 39.8 -4.0 -2.8 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 -4.0 -4.5 -6.2 -1.7 19.8 30.0 -3.5 -2.3 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 -4.8 -4.8 -3.4 -1.1 27.6 38.8 -4.4 -3.1 -1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 -6.1 -6.3 -6.7 -1.5 24.1 31.5 -5.7 -4.6 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 -4.6 -4.9 -3.3 -1.2 25.3 37.5 -4.2 -2.9 -1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -9.8 -10.0 -8.0 -1.4 25.9 32.3 -9.3 -7.9 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 -4.1 -4.1 -3.7 -1.1 28.4 38.3 -3.7 -2.5 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 -4.8 -4.8 -3.2 -1.0 28.2 39.7 -4.4 -3.2 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 -4.4 -4.7 -3.5 -1.2 24.7 37.0 -4.0 -2.9 -1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -4.4 -4.8 -5.1 -1.5 22.8 32.7 -4.0 -2.9 -1.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 -4.3 -4.8 -5.0 -1.5 21.9 32.4 -3.9 -2.7 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 -5.1 -6.0 -6.6 -2.2 13.3 22.1 -4.3 -3.2 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 -4.4 -4.8 -4.0 -1.3 25.0 35.8 -4.0 -2.6 -1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 -5.5 -5.5 -5.5 -1.3 26.7 34.9 -5.0 -3.8 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -6.6 -6.9 -7.4 -1.5 24.1 31.2 -6.2 -5.0 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 -4.4 -4.7 -3.2 -1.2 25.9 37.7 -4.0 -2.7 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------