***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 9999.0 -7.1 -4.0 -1.9 23.6 37.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 -5.9 -6.3 -4.2 -2.1 22.1 35.6 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 -3.7 -4.2 -4.2 -2.1 21.0 36.2 -2.9 -1.2 0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -9.7 -9.6 -6.3 -1.8 25.8 37.0 -8.7 -6.7 -4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 -5.9 -5.9 -6.0 -1.9 25.0 37.5 -5.0 -3.1 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -7.0 -6.4 -7.5 -1.5 30.9 38.3 -6.1 -4.3 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 -5.7 -5.9 -4.1 -2.0 23.7 36.4 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -10.5 -10.0 -6.4 -1.5 31.4 41.4 -9.8 -8.1 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 -5.1 -5.0 -5.4 -1.8 26.7 38.8 -4.3 -2.4 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 -5.4 -4.9 -6.1 -1.6 30.5 40.6 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 -5.8 -5.9 -6.0 -1.8 25.3 38.3 -4.9 -3.1 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 -6.3 -6.1 -5.9 -1.7 27.1 39.5 -5.4 -3.5 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 -5.8 -5.5 -6.4 -1.7 27.2 38.3 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 -4.8 -4.9 -5.4 -2.2 23.1 35.1 -3.9 -2.3 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 -5.9 -5.2 -5.7 -1.3 32.6 40.6 -5.2 -3.3 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 -5.0 -5.0 -6.4 -1.8 25.4 37.8 -4.1 -2.4 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 -5.6 -5.6 -4.1 -1.9 25.4 36.7 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 -6.9 -6.1 -6.5 -1.4 33.4 41.4 -6.2 -4.5 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 -5.8 -6.5 -4.2 -2.2 20.5 35.2 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -10.7 -8.9 -7.3 -0.8 40.9 46.2 -10.0 -7.7 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 -5.3 -5.4 -4.6 -1.9 24.5 38.0 -4.4 -2.6 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 -5.7 -5.9 -4.1 -1.9 24.3 36.2 -4.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 -5.3 -6.3 -4.5 -2.2 19.1 34.7 -4.6 -3.0 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 -5.7 -5.7 -5.5 -2.0 25.3 37.2 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 -5.7 -5.7 -5.7 -1.9 24.5 36.3 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 -5.5 -5.2 -5.9 -1.6 29.3 39.4 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 -6.2 -6.2 -4.8 -1.9 24.3 36.7 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 -7.0 -6.8 -6.1 -1.6 27.5 38.0 -6.1 -4.2 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -8.0 -6.9 -6.9 -1.2 36.2 42.7 -7.3 -5.5 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 -5.6 -6.1 -4.1 -2.1 21.3 35.7 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------