***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 -0.3 2.6 -2.0 26.8 35.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 0.7 0.6 2.1 -2.3 24.4 34.6 1.6 3.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 1.4 1.4 2.8 -2.2 26.3 34.9 2.3 4.5 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 -3.4 -2.8 1.0 -1.8 29.3 35.1 -2.4 -0.4 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 1.8 2.2 1.6 -1.9 29.4 35.4 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 1.6 2.1 0.4 -1.6 31.9 37.8 2.2 3.9 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 0.2 0.1 2.1 -2.2 24.9 35.0 1.1 3.0 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -3.7 -3.3 1.1 -1.7 30.3 36.5 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.1 2.6 2.3 -1.8 30.0 36.1 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 1.7 2.2 1.6 -1.8 30.1 36.2 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.9 2.4 1.8 -1.7 30.5 36.4 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 1.7 2.3 1.7 -1.7 30.6 36.7 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 1.9 2.4 1.1 -1.7 30.0 36.5 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 1.7 1.9 2.4 -2.1 27.5 34.8 2.7 5.1 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 0.6 1.6 1.2 -1.5 32.3 37.1 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.4 2.8 1.3 -1.7 30.4 36.4 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 0.5 0.4 1.9 -2.2 24.8 34.8 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 1.1 1.4 1.2 -1.9 29.4 36.0 1.7 3.2 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 0.5 0.4 2.4 -2.3 24.6 34.5 1.6 3.7 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -1.8 28.8 36.1 -0.3 1.6 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 1.9 2.3 2.6 -2.0 28.5 35.5 2.8 4.8 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 1.0 0.9 2.1 -2.3 25.0 34.4 1.9 3.8 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 0.8 0.7 2.7 -2.3 25.4 34.4 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 1.9 2.1 2.3 -2.0 28.4 35.4 2.7 4.8 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 1.1 1.3 1.3 -1.9 28.1 35.1 1.8 3.5 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.2 2.3 1.0 -1.8 28.6 35.9 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 1.3 1.3 1.9 -2.0 27.3 35.3 2.1 4.0 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 1.4 2.1 1.2 -1.7 30.6 36.0 2.5 4.6 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -1.1 -0.7 0.6 -1.8 29.6 36.3 -0.3 1.6 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 0.4 0.3 2.3 -2.2 24.7 34.7 1.3 3.2 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------