***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 3.4 4.3 -0.5 45.1 47.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.9 3.8 4.1 -0.6 44.0 47.3 2.5 4.5 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.0 4.6 -0.5 45.3 47.5 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -3.0 -1.3 2.4 -0.6 44.2 46.6 -2.6 -0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.6 4.6 3.2 -0.4 46.0 47.4 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.2 1.9 -0.1 48.9 49.5 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.5 3.4 3.9 -0.5 44.5 47.8 2.0 4.1 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -3.6 -1.7 2.6 -0.1 48.9 49.3 -3.3 -1.6 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.3 5.6 4.0 -0.3 47.1 47.9 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.3 5.5 3.2 -0.2 48.4 48.8 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.1 5.3 3.4 -0.2 47.8 48.4 3.6 5.5 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.4 3.2 -0.2 48.3 48.8 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.2 5.2 2.7 -0.2 47.9 48.6 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.9 6.3 4.3 -0.2 48.3 48.9 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.7 4.3 2.4 -0.6 43.7 46.5 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.3 2.9 -0.3 47.4 48.3 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.7 3.8 -0.5 44.2 47.5 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.5 2.9 -0.1 49.3 49.5 3.1 4.6 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.0 4.3 -0.5 44.3 47.2 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.0 49.5 50.1 0.2 1.9 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.1 5.2 4.3 -0.4 45.9 47.5 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.3 4.1 -0.5 44.4 47.3 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.6 4.7 4.7 -0.4 45.5 47.5 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.6 6.0 4.1 -0.2 48.3 48.8 4.1 6.2 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.0 3.7 2.9 -0.4 45.4 47.7 2.4 4.2 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.6 2.5 -0.3 46.7 48.0 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.1 3.6 -0.4 45.8 48.2 2.5 4.5 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.3 2.6 -0.6 44.1 46.5 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.3 2.2 0.0 50.4 50.4 0.5 2.3 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.7 3.6 4.2 -0.5 44.2 47.4 2.2 4.3 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------