***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.6 3.1 -1.6 24.4 34.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.3 2.0 2.9 -1.6 24.9 35.3 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.2 3.0 3.4 -1.6 24.0 34.1 3.9 5.5 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -2.0 -2.2 1.2 -1.7 24.4 32.2 -1.4 0.0 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.2 2.9 1.8 -1.8 23.0 31.4 3.9 5.3 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 2.7 2.2 0.2 -2.0 19.0 26.8 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.7 1.5 2.8 -1.5 25.2 35.3 2.4 3.9 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 -2.7 -3.3 0.9 -2.1 17.5 26.3 -2.1 -1.1 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.8 3.7 2.7 -1.6 24.9 33.2 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 3.3 2.8 1.6 -1.9 20.7 29.2 4.0 5.5 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.4 3.0 1.9 -1.8 21.7 30.2 4.1 5.6 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 3.5 2.8 1.5 -2.0 18.3 27.2 4.3 5.6 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 3.1 2.4 1.1 -2.1 17.7 26.2 4.0 5.4 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 3.7 3.3 2.8 -1.8 22.5 32.2 4.5 6.1 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.8 2.9 1.8 -1.3 29.9 36.1 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 3.6 3.2 1.4 -1.9 20.8 29.1 4.5 5.9 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.0 1.9 2.6 -1.5 25.9 35.9 2.6 4.0 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 2.6 1.9 1.1 -2.1 18.1 27.1 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.4 2.1 3.1 -1.6 24.8 35.2 3.0 4.6 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 -0.1 -1.1 -1.0 -2.4 12.7 21.2 0.9 2.2 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.5 3.4 3.1 -1.6 24.7 33.6 4.2 5.6 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.5 2.5 2.9 -1.5 26.2 36.2 3.2 4.7 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.7 2.4 3.4 -1.6 24.6 34.9 3.3 4.8 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.8 3.3 2.6 -1.8 21.7 31.2 4.5 6.0 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.2 1.7 -1.7 23.3 32.0 3.1 4.4 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 3.2 2.2 0.7 -2.3 13.7 22.2 4.0 5.1 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 2.8 2.5 2.4 -1.6 23.6 32.9 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.5 3.3 1.5 -1.6 26.0 33.3 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 0.4 -0.4 0.3 -2.2 16.3 25.3 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.1 1.9 3.1 -1.6 24.5 35.0 2.7 4.2 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------