***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 36.9 45.9 121.9 70.9 64.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 33.3 34.2 43.5 118.4 69.2 63.4 16.0 23.5 32.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 45.8 48.3 46.5 121.1 70.7 64.6 21.5 31.5 43.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 54.4 55.2 54.0 119.7 69.6 62.6 24.6 36.8 51.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 50.8 49.8 51.9 116.7 68.1 61.8 25.1 35.6 47.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 33.5 41.0 52.9 115.5 67.4 60.2 19.3 28.7 39.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 31.1 32.1 43.3 120.0 69.9 64.0 16.0 22.5 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 71.5 72.1 58.4 119.0 69.4 63.0 32.7 48.4 67.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 41.6 41.6 52.6 119.9 70.2 64.0 20.5 28.8 38.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 50.5 50.4 56.9 119.7 70.1 64.0 23.6 34.0 46.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 44.8 44.0 51.2 118.4 69.0 62.5 20.7 30.1 41.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 42.5 42.1 51.7 118.2 68.9 62.2 17.1 26.9 39.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 36.2 44.3 52.3 115.0 67.2 60.4 20.5 30.8 43.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 47.3 56.0 53.6 114.3 66.9 62.5 31.5 42.7 55.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 34.9 47.0 52.2 119.9 69.3 61.7 17.3 28.7 43.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 40.8 39.9 51.4 117.8 68.7 61.9 17.3 26.4 37.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 33.1 33.1 41.4 117.7 68.6 62.9 16.8 23.6 31.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 46.1 46.0 62.6 119.5 70.1 64.5 21.0 30.8 42.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 38.3 38.6 44.0 117.0 68.4 63.1 19.6 27.6 37.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 45.0 47.4 78.1 121.4 70.8 64.9 22.8 32.4 43.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 44.7 45.4 49.4 121.4 70.8 64.1 23.4 32.0 41.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 28.8 35.5 42.9 115.7 67.5 62.6 17.6 25.4 34.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 37.7 36.8 45.8 115.6 67.6 62.8 18.2 26.1 35.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 53.9 54.5 54.4 119.0 69.8 64.4 29.3 39.5 51.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 37.9 48.0 52.6 119.1 69.5 62.8 23.1 33.0 45.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 29.9 36.8 54.8 115.4 67.4 60.0 16.1 24.9 35.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 41.0 42.7 49.6 120.8 70.4 64.3 20.4 29.1 39.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.2 39.9 51.7 118.5 68.8 61.7 15.4 25.1 37.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 71.3 72.0 68.3 119.5 70.1 64.4 33.0 48.4 66.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 26.9 34.8 44.2 119.4 69.7 63.8 16.5 23.7 32.3 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------