***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-22.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 12.4 14.0 184.1 83.4 73.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 8.7 12.1 11.9 171.3 81.4 70.8 1.6 3.7 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 11.4 17.6 14.7 188.5 84.2 74.4 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 17.1 24.7 17.8 190.8 84.5 73.3 4.8 8.7 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 12.0 18.1 17.0 184.7 83.7 73.1 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 8.9 13.5 16.9 199.2 85.7 77.2 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 7.1 9.9 11.8 172.8 81.7 70.7 1.5 3.2 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 19.3 28.7 19.3 198.3 85.9 76.4 5.3 9.7 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 9.7 15.5 17.9 197.4 85.7 76.2 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 11.5 18.1 19.3 201.6 86.5 77.4 2.8 5.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 10.5 15.8 17.5 200.3 85.9 76.1 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 9.1 13.5 17.6 201.3 86.0 76.2 2.7 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 8.3 12.4 17.1 191.4 84.8 75.8 2.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 15.0 20.4 16.3 175.6 82.1 74.5 3.5 6.8 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 11.5 16.7 15.8 176.6 82.0 68.8 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 8.4 13.9 17.1 199.9 86.1 76.1 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 6.9 9.7 11.1 170.2 81.2 70.3 1.6 3.2 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 11.2 16.5 20.2 198.7 86.1 77.7 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 10.1 14.0 12.5 171.4 81.4 71.6 1.8 4.0 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 9.7 13.3 22.5 191.0 84.9 76.5 3.0 5.0 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 11.0 17.3 16.6 196.6 85.4 75.6 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 10.0 13.5 11.8 168.5 80.9 71.2 2.1 4.4 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 10.6 14.4 13.7 174.0 81.8 73.1 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 13.8 21.5 17.6 192.6 85.0 76.5 2.5 5.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 9.7 13.7 16.1 177.0 82.3 71.4 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 5.6 8.2 17.1 187.1 84.2 74.0 1.8 3.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 8.0 11.5 15.0 180.8 83.0 72.9 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 10.0 15.2 16.6 190.9 84.4 72.6 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 18.3 27.4 20.9 194.7 85.7 77.2 4.3 8.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 8.9 12.5 12.6 174.8 81.9 71.6 1.5 3.6 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------