***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 11.4 11.6 135.3 74.2 64.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.0 10.4 11.0 123.2 70.7 59.3 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 9.0 15.5 11.6 130.4 72.9 63.8 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 8.1 13.1 13.5 123.9 71.2 62.3 3.2 6.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 8.7 12.7 12.4 116.5 68.8 61.3 3.8 7.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.0 12.6 12.6 106.9 65.9 56.8 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.9 10.6 11.0 125.7 71.5 60.2 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 11.3 14.6 12.5 108.2 66.0 59.6 5.4 9.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 7.0 11.3 12.4 119.5 69.8 62.6 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 8.0 11.7 12.5 113.3 67.5 61.0 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 7.6 10.7 11.5 110.8 66.8 59.6 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 7.9 10.4 11.2 104.7 64.9 58.1 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.0 11.3 11.8 103.2 64.2 57.0 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.0 17.7 12.7 117.0 68.7 61.2 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 11.7 13.8 14.8 134.0 74.0 62.0 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 8.3 11.2 12.0 110.6 66.8 58.9 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.6 9.1 10.1 114.1 67.9 56.5 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 7.8 12.2 14.0 117.6 68.8 62.5 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.8 11.6 11.0 122.0 70.4 59.7 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 13.7 13.6 17.6 119.0 69.3 62.3 3.4 6.9 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 11.4 12.9 12.1 127.4 72.1 64.1 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.2 9.8 10.5 113.3 67.7 57.3 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.0 10.8 11.4 121.3 70.2 60.7 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 9.6 15.4 12.8 122.5 70.5 63.2 4.0 7.8 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 14.0 16.3 13.3 132.1 73.3 64.6 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.8 10.6 12.3 98.7 63.5 56.2 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 12.4 14.3 12.4 131.7 73.2 63.8 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.2 11.4 13.4 121.7 70.7 60.3 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 18.5 18.9 15.5 118.7 69.2 62.5 5.1 10.1 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.4 11.8 11.2 127.6 72.0 61.2 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------