***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 3.6 10.6 96.1 60.6 51.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.8 10.2 96.2 61.2 52.0 1.7 2.8 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.6 10.7 95.4 60.3 51.3 2.0 3.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.3 12.4 100.3 62.5 52.4 3.8 6.6 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.2 9.0 12.4 100.9 62.1 51.8 3.4 6.3 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.8 12.3 102.4 62.6 52.0 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.1 4.4 10.2 97.5 61.6 51.5 1.9 3.2 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 15.5 15.0 104.9 64.0 53.4 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.5 6.0 12.3 100.0 61.7 51.6 2.5 4.3 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.6 14.0 101.3 62.3 52.2 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.6 12.5 102.4 62.8 52.5 3.1 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.2 13.1 106.6 64.8 54.0 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.6 12.9 106.0 64.1 53.1 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.7 13.1 93.5 58.8 51.2 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.0 7.5 12.0 104.8 65.2 54.1 1.5 4.0 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.7 7.5 12.4 103.7 63.3 52.5 3.1 5.2 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.1 4.6 10.1 100.4 62.9 51.5 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.6 15.8 99.7 61.5 51.5 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.9 4.2 10.2 93.8 60.3 51.9 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.6 8.0 21.3 105.5 64.2 52.7 2.2 4.7 8.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.8 11.1 96.6 60.3 50.6 2.5 4.4 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.7 4.1 10.3 96.4 61.4 51.8 1.5 2.8 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.7 10.5 90.9 58.6 51.0 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.6 8.1 13.2 97.0 60.4 51.6 3.8 6.2 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.5 12.1 94.2 59.6 50.6 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.0 9.4 14.2 113.9 67.4 56.7 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.5 11.4 95.1 59.9 50.8 2.5 4.2 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.0 12.0 102.6 63.9 53.1 1.9 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.5 17.7 99.7 61.5 51.6 4.6 8.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.6 10.3 95.1 60.7 51.8 1.8 2.8 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------