***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 6.2 9.7 92.7 60.0 52.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.9 8.1 10.4 101.3 63.9 55.9 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.9 9.6 91.0 58.3 50.6 3.5 6.9 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.1 8.8 10.2 82.0 54.6 48.0 3.9 7.6 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.1 10.0 81.8 54.0 47.4 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.9 6.7 11.0 81.8 53.4 44.9 3.7 6.1 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.9 7.1 10.2 102.4 64.2 55.9 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.8 12.8 11.5 85.5 55.8 48.6 6.0 10.8 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.4 10.0 82.6 54.2 47.1 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.0 11.1 84.4 55.1 47.9 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.5 7.9 9.6 81.1 53.4 46.6 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.0 6.8 9.8 81.6 53.4 46.4 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.1 10.5 81.1 52.9 45.5 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.1 11.6 90.2 56.8 48.7 4.1 8.1 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.7 7.6 9.6 79.5 55.0 46.7 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.9 6.4 9.9 80.4 53.0 45.8 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.3 10.1 103.7 64.7 55.9 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.3 12.5 86.6 55.4 48.1 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.3 10.3 98.7 62.4 54.7 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.5 16.7 94.5 59.9 51.8 4.0 7.0 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.7 9.6 85.4 56.2 48.8 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.5 9.0 10.3 101.9 64.2 56.5 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.2 10.2 94.7 59.8 51.6 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.9 9.8 10.8 86.1 54.9 47.3 4.4 8.3 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.9 11.1 91.3 59.2 52.7 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.7 11.2 83.7 55.9 47.9 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 9.3 10.1 10.8 95.2 60.8 53.8 3.9 7.4 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.0 6.5 9.7 79.1 53.6 45.7 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.0 14.1 90.3 57.3 49.5 5.4 10.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.9 10.2 98.9 62.7 54.9 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------