***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 -5.3 -5.4 -5.3 -2.2 27.5 35.1 -4.7 -2.9 -1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 -5.7 -6.5 -5.9 -2.9 20.7 30.1 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 -3.6 -4.0 -5.6 -2.6 22.4 30.8 -2.9 -1.2 0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -9.0 -8.3 -7.1 -1.3 35.8 40.5 -8.7 -6.7 -4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 -5.2 -4.6 -6.5 -1.3 36.3 41.1 -5.0 -3.1 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -3.6 -4.8 -8.0 -0.4 45.5 48.1 -6.1 -4.3 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -5.4 -5.6 -5.2 -2.2 26.1 34.1 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -7.4 -8.2 -7.2 -0.1 49.1 50.7 -9.8 -8.1 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 -4.8 -4.6 -6.8 -1.9 30.1 36.1 -4.3 -2.4 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 -2.2 -3.8 -7.2 -0.8 41.4 44.8 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -2.3 -4.4 -7.1 -1.2 37.8 42.1 -4.9 -3.1 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 -2.7 -4.2 -7.2 -0.7 43.4 46.4 -5.4 -3.5 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 -2.3 -3.8 -7.3 -0.7 42.1 45.6 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 -4.4 -4.1 -7.0 -1.9 30.3 36.2 -3.9 -2.3 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 -5.9 -5.9 -6.7 -2.2 27.5 33.4 -5.2 -3.3 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -3.4 -7.5 -1.0 39.9 44.0 -4.1 -2.4 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 -5.3 -5.7 -5.5 -2.4 25.2 33.6 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 -6.5 -5.2 -7.4 -0.7 42.7 46.1 -6.2 -4.5 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 -5.9 -6.9 -6.3 -3.2 17.7 27.7 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 -5.1 -6.3 -7.0 1.0 60.3 59.5 -10.0 -7.7 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -4.9 -5.1 -5.9 -2.2 26.9 34.1 -4.4 -2.6 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 -5.8 -6.3 -6.1 -2.9 20.6 30.3 -4.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 -5.8 -6.7 -6.7 -3.3 16.4 26.2 -4.6 -3.0 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -5.3 -5.2 -7.0 -2.0 29.3 35.6 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 -5.2 -4.6 -5.6 -1.4 35.0 40.0 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -3.8 -7.4 -0.7 42.7 45.5 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -5.7 -5.2 -5.3 -1.8 31.8 38.1 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 -6.4 -5.9 -7.0 -1.5 34.8 39.8 -6.1 -4.2 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -4.7 -5.5 -7.6 0.0 49.5 50.9 -7.3 -5.5 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 -5.5 -6.2 -5.7 -2.8 20.7 30.0 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------